Michigan predictions
January 15th, 2008 at 06:37am Pat Cunningham
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The polls show the Republican contest in Michigan to be too close to call, but I expect that John McCain will win by at least five percentage points over Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee not far behind in third.
If this is right, Romney will be in deep trouble and will face pressure to get out of the race, which would greatly please Rudy Giuliani (who still doesn’t have a chance at the nomination, anyway).
If Huckabee finishes third in Michigan, he’ll have to win in South Carolina on Saturday to maintain any real hope of winning the nomination.
Fred Thompson and Ron Paul? They aren’t even dark horses in this race.
On the Democratic side, most of the candidates have shunned the Michigan primary in accordance with the national party’s displeasure with the early date. Hillary Clinton is the only contender whose name will appear on the ballot. But therein lies a risk.
If Hillary doesn’t draw a whole lot more votes than the “uncommitted” choice on the ballot, she’ll be politically embarrassed and will lose a bit of her momentum from New Hampshire.
Some liberal bloggers are encouraging Michigan Democrats to take Republican ballots and mark for Romney. The theory is that a Romney victory today would throw the GOP race into further turmoil and slow the McCain surge.
But I don’t think many Dems are going to heed the suggestion, even if their own party’s ballot offers little choice.Â
Entry Filed under: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Michigan Republican primary, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee
5 Comments Add your own
1. Ron Paul » Michigan&hellip | January 15th, 2008 at 7:34 am
[…] Applesauce wrote an interesting post today on Michigan predictionsHere’s a quick excerptIf Huckabee finishes third in Michigan, he’ll have to win in South Carolina on Saturday to maintain any real hope of winning the nomination. Fred Thompson and Ron Paul?… […]
2. Michigan predictions&hellip | January 15th, 2008 at 7:40 am
[…] RevolutionRadio.org wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt  The polls show the Republican contest in Michigan to be too close to call, but I expect that John McCain will win by at least five percentage points over Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee not far behind in third. If this is right, Romney will be in deep trouble and will face pressure to get out of the race, which would greatly please Rudy Giuliani (who still doesn’t have a chance at the nomination, anyway). If Huckabee finishes third in Michigan, he’ll have to win in South Carolina on Saturd […]
3. Rudy Giuliani » Mic&hellip | January 15th, 2008 at 11:10 am
[…] Applesauce wrote an interesting post today on Michigan predictionsHere’s a quick excerptIf this is right, Romney will be in deep trouble and will face pressure to get out of the race, which would greatly please Rudy Giuliani (who still doesn’t… […]
4. Mike Huckabee » Mic&hellip | January 15th, 2008 at 11:22 am
[…] Applesauce wrote an interesting post today on Michigan predictionsHere’s a quick excerpt … ith Mike Huckabee not far behind in third…. […]
5. jennie pollock | January 16th, 2008 at 7:19 am
well, mr. sauce, romney won, so let the games begin….
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