Ok, Now I get it (I think)
January 16th, 2008 at 07:31am Pat Cunningham
So Mitt Romney won the Republican presidential primary in Michigan on Tuesday, the party’s third different victor in as many contests this month.
Does this just further muddle the GOP race? You’d think so, wouldn’t you? For me, it has the opposite effect. It makes the picture more clear. Romney’s going to be the nominee.
Yes, I had predicted that John McCain would win in Michigan, and now I see the error in my calculations.
McCain won this primary handily eight years ago with a lot of crossover votes from Democrats and independents. I thought that would happen again this time, especially since there was no real contest on the Democratic side, but it didn’t. For whatever reason, a far greater percentage of voters in this year’s GOP primary were actually regular Republicans.
Well, John McCain doesn’t do well among regular Republicans. I didn’t fully understand that until yesterday. And now I figure he can’t win the nomination. The party faithful just don’t cotton much to this guy.
What about Mike Huckabee? He’s going nowhere. His third-place finish in Michigan was weak. The party establishment is against him. His win in Iowa now appears to have been a fluke.
Rudy Giuliani? He probably was pleased to see Romney win on Tuesday, lest McCain’s surge gain irresistable momentum. But now the momentum is with Romney, and Rudy hasn’t got a chance of stopping it. Besides, how in the world is a thrice-married, pro-choice, pro-gay-rights former mayor of New York going to become the standard-bearer of the Republican Party? Hey, they might as well nominate me. Not gonna happen.
As for Fred Thompson, he peaked about a month before he announced his candidacy and has been sliding downward with every campaign appearance he makes.
So there it is. The Republican race is over. Move along, folks, nothing to see here. The action is over on the Democratic side.
In November, it’s going to be Romney vs. Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
Entry Filed under: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Fred Thompson, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama
4 Comments Add your own
1. Mike Carroll | January 16th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Pat-You may be right but I suspect it is still a horserace for the GOP nomination. I am more fascinated by what appears to be a strong 3rd candidate for the Dems coming out of nowhere last night. Who is this Mr./Ms. (?) Uncommitted. 40 -45% of the vote in the Michigan primary and finishing ahead of Dennis the Menace-the true standard bearer of progressives everywhere. Doen’t that make you question Hillary’s electability?
2. Pat Cunningham | January 16th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Mike: Dennis the Menace, as you call him, has as much chance of getting the Democratic nomination as you do. The second-place (not third) finish by “uncommitted” has nothing to do with Hillary’s electability. Lots of those votes for “uncommitted” likely came from Obama supporters, most of whom will vote for Hillary in November, if she’s the nominee. By the same token, loyal Republicans who voted in primaries for other candidates likely will back their party’s nominee in November. A challenge to you, Mike: Tell me which of the Republican candidates seems highly electable in a race against Hillary. Mitt? McCain? Huck? (The others have no chance of getting the nomination.)
3. Mike Carroll | January 17th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Pat-you mis-read my comment or I stated it poorly before the coffee kicked in. I know that Mr. Uncommitted finished 2nd.
The Republicans don’t have a highly electable candidate but neither do the Democrats.Either McCain or Romney can beat Hillary. Her national negatives are just too high. Too much baggage dragging Billy Bob. I think Obama would have a better chance.
And don’t discount my potential as a potential Democratic candidate. I can fake empathy with the best of them.
4. Pat Cunningham | January 17th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Which reminds me of the old saying: Sincerity is the secret to success. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.
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