What happens when Rudy drops out?

January 24th, 2008 at 06:21am Pat Cunningham

It’s becoming INCREASINGLY LIKELY that Rudy Giuliani will come in third or fourth in the Republican primary in Florida next Tuesday and will be finished as a presidential hopeful.

So where will his supporters go?

I think most of them would be naturally inclined to go with John McCain, whose image as something of a maverick is closest to Rudy’s.

But if Mitt Romney wins in Florida, he’ll have a momentum — a seeming inevitability — that could draw a lot of erstwhile Giuliani people.

In short, the bulk of the Giuliani crowd will gravitate to the side of whoever wins in Florida.  (And that winner won’t be Mike Huckabee.  He’s history.)

As I said here last week, I  expect Romney to be the nominee.  McCain’s problem is that he needs independent voters to prevail.  But some of the upcoming primaries are open only to registered Republicans, many of whom aren’t too keen on McCain.

Moreover, in some of the states where independents will be allowed to participate in the Republican primaries, McCain will find himself in competition with Democrat Barack Obama for those voters.

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