South Carolina Dem primary prediction
January 26th, 2008 at 08:01am Pat Cunningham
The only surprise I’m looking for in today’s balloting among Democrats in South Carolina is a closer race than the polls suggest between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton for second place, well behind Barack Obama.
I figure Obama’s percentage of the overall vote will be in the mid to upper 40s, while Edwards and Clinton both score in the mid 20s.
Obama will get 22 of the 45 delegates from the Palmetto State, while his rivals split the rest.
If Hillary finishes third, much of the media and the blogosphere will portray the result as rejection of her and Bill Clinton’s negative campaign tactics.
Even if she does better than Edwards, she’ll have to be within 10 percentage points of Obama to avoid renewed speculation that she might not win the nomination.
Today’s primary is the last significant test on the Democratic side before Super Duper Mega Awesome Orgasmic Tuesday on Feb. 5.
Meanwhile, for the Republicans, a major showdown looms next Tuesday in Florida. If Mitt Romney wins convincingly, his momentum will be almost irresistible.
Entry Filed under: Florida Republican Primary, Bill Clinton, South Carolina Democratic primary, John Edwards, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama
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