8 Comments Add your own

• 1. Menlo Bob  |  April 21st, 2008 at 12:46 am

  Yeah, well don’t go out on a limb or anything. You’ve just recited conventional wisdom about how this will play out.

• 2. Pat Cunningham  |  April 21st, 2008 at 6:31 am

  OK, Bob, if it’ll make you think of me as more courageous, I’ll predict that former Sen. Mike Gravel will win the Pennsylvania primary in a write-in. Is that unconventional enough for you? I mean, c’mon. I’m only predicting what I figure will happen. If I thought Obama would win in an upset, I’d say so. I hope he does, and more than a few observers say he will. But my reading suggests that it won’t happen. And what’s your bold prediction, Bob?

• 3. Menlo Bob  |  April 21st, 2008 at 4:15 pm

  ‘The way I see it’–that’s how everyone sees it.

  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

• 4. Pat Cunningham  |  April 21st, 2008 at 4:43 pm

  You’re being obtuse just to rile me, right? The way I see it IS NOT the way everyone sees it. In my post, I linked to five other sites where the predictions are that Obama will win — predictions with which I disagree. There probably are hundreds of other bloggers and pundits who expect Obama to win tomorrow. You’re not really this dumb, are you, Bob? Please say you’re just kidding.

• 5. Menlo Bob  |  April 21st, 2008 at 4:56 pm

  Well if you’ll allow crazy uncles with blogs to define the mainstream I see where you’re coming from. Tomorrow we’ll have a chance to compare notes–your blog brothers holding wet fingers aloft against averaged polls. Loser posts a love poem to the other. Deal?

• 6. Pat Cunningham  |  April 21st, 2008 at 5:08 pm

  Sorry, Bob. I’m a hetero. (Not that there’s anything wrong with the other orientation.) Besides, as I said above, I hope my prediction about Clinton winning is wrong. The wronger, the better. My only argument with you is that I reject your characterization of my prediction as one that merely goes along with what “everyone,” as you put it, is saying. Clearly, not everyone agrees with my prediction. Michael Smerconish, a conservative talk-show host in Philly and a frequent guest on national TV, predicts that Obama will win tomorrow and HIllary will quit the race Thursday. I hope he’s right, but I think he’s wrong. What’s your prediction, Bob? You fault my prediction, but you seem to lack the courage to make one of your own. Tell me who you think will win and characterize the margin (slim, comfortable, wide, whatever).

• 7. Kaus  |  April 21st, 2008 at 6:44 pm

  Unfortunately for the Obama fans, the matter of Republicans voting for Hillary could be a factor.

  In fairness to Pat, he DOES earn his bread and butter doing political commentary for a living, so he must know something. Otherwise he could have been on “Cheers” for at least 40 episodes.

• 8. Menlo Bob  |  April 21st, 2008 at 7:54 pm

  Sorry, I don’t do the snake dance (not that there’s anything wrong with it). Look, you’ve got two methods for figuring out who might win; You could round up all the crazy uncle bloggers and see if you can smell what they smell, or you can check with the people who ask this question professionally. History has shown that the most reliable method is to average all of the professional polls. I’ll accept the averaged wisdom. You seem to feel that the equivalent of your throbbing bursitis displays some sort of wisdom. Well you could be right, all I’m saying is that it might not be the best method going forward.

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