Pennsylvania predictions
April 20th, 2008 at 05:57pm Pat Cunningham
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I hope I’m wrong about this, but the way I see it, Hillary Clinton will win both the popular vote and delegate split by slim margins in Tuesday’s balloting.
If that’s the case, she’ll likely stay in the race, but her chances of winning the nomination will remain exceedingly small.
A glance around the blogosphere shows predictions all over the place at this point.
Guesses in Clinton’s favor, randomly selected, are found HERE and HERE and HERE and HERE.
Barack Obama gets the nod, again randomly, Â HERE and HERE and HERE and HERE.
UPDATE: HERE’s an interesting analysis from a Philly blogger who expects Obama to win by 5 percentage points.
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4 Comments Add your own
1. Pat Cunningham | April 21st, 2008 at 6:31 am
OK, Bob, if it’ll make you think of me as more courageous, I’ll predict that former Sen. Mike Gravel will win the Pennsylvania primary in a write-in. Is that unconventional enough for you? I mean, c’mon. I’m only predicting what I figure will happen. If I thought Obama would win in an upset, I’d say so. I hope he does, and more than a few observers say he will. But my reading suggests that it won’t happen. And what’s your bold prediction, Bob?
2. Pat Cunningham | April 21st, 2008 at 4:43 pm
You’re being obtuse just to rile me, right? The way I see it IS NOT the way everyone sees it. In my post, I linked to five other sites where the predictions are that Obama will win — predictions with which I disagree. There probably are hundreds of other bloggers and pundits who expect Obama to win tomorrow. You’re not really this dumb, are you, Bob? Please say you’re just kidding.
3. Pat Cunningham | April 21st, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Sorry, Bob. I’m a hetero. (Not that there’s anything wrong with the other orientation.) Besides, as I said above, I hope my prediction about Clinton winning is wrong. The wronger, the better. My only argument with you is that I reject your characterization of my prediction as one that merely goes along with what “everyone,” as you put it, is saying. Clearly, not everyone agrees with my prediction. Michael Smerconish, a conservative talk-show host in Philly and a frequent guest on national TV, predicts that Obama will win tomorrow and HIllary will quit the race Thursday. I hope he’s right, but I think he’s wrong. What’s your prediction, Bob? You fault my prediction, but you seem to lack the courage to make one of your own. Tell me who you think will win and characterize the margin (slim, comfortable, wide, whatever).
4. Kaus | April 21st, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Unfortunately for the Obama fans, the matter of Republicans voting for Hillary could be a factor.
In fairness to Pat, he DOES earn his bread and butter doing political commentary for a living, so he must know something. Otherwise he could have been on “Cheers” for at least 40 episodes.
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