Almost all the polls show Clinton winning today’s Pennsylvania primary, but…
April 22nd, 2008 at 08:54am Pat Cunningham
From Taegan Goddards POLITICAL INSIDER, we get this roundup of the latest polls in Pennsylvania:
- Zogby: Clinton +10
- SurveyUSA: Clinton +6
- Suffolk: Clinton +10
- Quinnipiac: Clinton +7
- Strategic Vision: Clinton +7
- American Research Group: Clinton +13
- Mason-Dixon: Clinton +5
- Public Policy Polling: Obama +3
My own guess parallels the Mason-Dixon numbers. I figure Clinton will win by a relatively slim margin.
But I’m fascinated by the last poll on that list, the one that has Obama up by 3 percentage points. The sample size in that survey (2,338 likely voters) is much larger than the others, and the stated margin of error (2 percentage points) is much smaller.
So, the question arises: Will there be a stunning upset in today’s balloting? If so, Hillary will have to drop out of the race. But then, she’ll probably have to drop out eventually in any event.
UPDATE (1 PM CDT): By mid-day, VOTER TURNOUT was said to be extremely heavy all across the state.
Entry Filed under: Pennsylvania primary, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama
2 Comments Add your own
1. Menlo Bob | April 23rd, 2008 at 12:09 am
Now we know that Zogby and Suffolk nailed it but PPP polling is pure toxic junk.
2. Pat Cunningham | April 23rd, 2008 at 6:25 am
Ain’t that the truth.
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