Here are a few previews of today’s primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina
May 6th, 2008 at 08:39am Pat Cunningham
Freeport’s own Dan Balz has THIS PIECE in The Washington Post, and Adam Nagourney of The New York Times offers THIS.
Oh, and Mark Halperin of Time magazine, the most overrated pundit in the Class of ‘08, has THIS.
I made my predictions HERE on Sunday, but I may tweak them a bit (or a lot) as the day goes on. I try to make political prognostications with my head rather than my heart, but that isn’t always easy. I want to think Barack Obama can win both contests today, but I’m not ready to say he will.
What say you?
UPDATE: The final Zogby TRACKING POLL has Obama leading by 14 points in North Carolina and by 2 points in Indiana. It should be noted, however, that Zogby’s record so far this season has been less than impressive.
UPDATE II: Drudge SAYS Clinton campaign insiders see her losing in North Carolina by as much as 15 points.
UPDATE III: THIS GUY says women are abandoning Hillary in droves.
UPDATE IV: I’m picking up some buzz that lots of erstwhile Republicans in affluent suburbs of Indianapolis are taking Democratic ballots, but to whose benefit — Obama’s or Clinton’s – is not clear.
UPDATE V: OK, I’m ready to declare the outcome of the North Carolina primary. It’s not yet noon here in the Midwest, but on the basis of turnout numbers and other factors I’ve examined, I see Obama winning N.C. by a double-digit margin. You can take it to the bank.
Entry Filed under: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama
6 Comments Add your own
1. Mike Carroll | May 6th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Clinton by more than expected in IN and Obama by less than expected in NC. Has anyone figured out why Obama’s actual vote totals are not as strong as his polling?
2. Pat Cunningham | May 6th, 2008 at 10:56 am
In reply to your question, Mike, that hasn’t actually been the case in some states. For example, Obama has done better than expected in Southern states, mainly because black turnout was underestimated. My own sense of today’s situation is exactly the opposite of yours. I think Obama will do better than expected in N.C., and Hillary will do worse than expected in Indiana. At this writing, I even see signs suggesting that Obama might win Indiana. He’s a mortal lock in N.C.
3. Mike Carroll | May 6th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
File this under Class of the Clinton machine-
INDIANAPOLIS — Evan Bayh was halfway through telling a story about “a steelworker in Northern Indiana” on stage beside his Senate colleague, Hillary Clinton.
“Anybody know what he said?” Bayh asked at the Saturday rally, starting to quote the
steelworker: “Our candidate is the one in the race –.”
Clinton cut him off with a whisper and an urgent gesture.
“She doesn’t want me to go there,” Bayh told the crowd. “OK. I won’t. Alright, alright.”
Clinton may not like the story, but her supporters love it: The sheet metal workers union official in Portage, Indiana cited by Bayh had praised her “testicular fortitude” before lighting into unnamed “Gucci wearing, latte-drinking” opponents.
Also last week, a New York Post columnist wrote that she’d won the “cojones primary.”
And James Carville, the Clintons’ ubiquitous former aide, booster, and informal adviser made the point even more vividly, giving Clinton a two-gonad edge on her primary rival, Senator Barack Obama.
“If she gave him one of her cojones, they’d both have two,” Carville said.
The ballsy fighter is the newest persona for a woman whom public life has taken from a liberal policy wonk to a devoted wife, from a wronged woman to a cerebral senator.
Just as this campaign, a campaign that began obsessed with showing strength, was revived with a show of vulnerability in New Hampshire. Last fall, she was the ultimate wonk; this spring, she’s emerged as a beer-swigging, never-say-die populist—proud of her toughness above all, mocking out-of-touch elites and deriding economists as a class.
Skeptics might say these kaleidoscopic transformations have been, themselves, a bit ballsy.
4. Pat Cunningham | May 6th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Wow, Mike! Incisive analysis. Lots of words. Anti-Hillary. I love it. Get your own blog, Dude.
5. Mike Carroll | May 6th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Nah-this looks like it could be work and I already have a job. Debating you is a hobby.
BTW-it looks like your prediction is going to be better than mine. A tug of the forelock to you.
6. Pat Cunningham | May 6th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
“Tug of the forelock”? Is that some kind of sexual thing?
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