Historians handicap the McCain-Obama race
June 15th, 2008 at 01:35pm Pat Cunningham
 
Politico’s David Paul Kuhn informally surveys presidential scholars and finds that most of them SAY they expect John McCain to get drubbed by Barack Obama.
One of them, Allan Lichtman, who has correctly picked the last six winners of the presidential popular vote, predicts “an overwhelming Democratic victory.”
So, read the piece and tell me why these folks are right or wrong.
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13 Comments Add your own
1. Mr. Baseball | June 15th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
I agree with the experts quoted in the article. Barring any unforeseen scandals, I feel that Obama should win convincingly. With virtually all polls showing the economy and the war as the top two issues, it all plays very well for Obama considering that McCain is backing the current policies of George Bush. In hindsight, Obama is fortunate the Revernd Wright issue came out during the primaries and not the general election campaign.
2. Wade | June 15th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Why don\’t we just forget the election altogether. The media has already made their choice. I see no reason to vote now.
3. Pat Cunningham | June 15th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
Good idea, Wade. You can just skip the election, and then you won’t offset my vote. (Of course, it won’t make any difference, since Obama’s going to carry Illinois in any event. I’m presuming you live in Illinois.)
4. Menlo Bob | June 15th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Totally worthless information Historian’s from both sides of the aisle agree…7 from the left, 1 from the right. And despite that historians deal with stuff that happened in the past–they’re not fortune tellers. Might as well ask a random selection of people from the moon.
I’ll accept the wisdom of historians when you can tell me one historian that spoke up and said that it is impossible to flush a Koran down a toilet. Yet they accepted this bit of media nonsense.
5. redrover | June 16th, 2008 at 6:37 am
Being stupid, arrogant, out-of-touch, ivory-tower eggheads, these “historians” just don’t get it.
They failed to factor into their “models” and prognostications the one thing about this election that makes it different than any other that came before it.
It’s going to be about race, dummies !!!
Obama and his wife and kids are African-Americans. McCain and his family are not. And that’s going to be fertile ground for all sorts of racist innuendo and insinuation.
Do not forget what the Bush republicans did to McCain during the 2000 South Carolina primary on the strength of a lie that he had fathered an illegitimate black child.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisper_campaign#Use_in_politics
McCain has now embraced and is working with these racist, lying scumbags, and will not shrink from letting slip the dogs of bigotry, if that’s what it takes to secure his victory.
If these prideful so-called scholars really want to examine a previous election that was similar to this one in this important category, they should take a good look at the elections of 1928 and 1960.
In both those races, anti-Catholic sentiment made a big difference in the way significant numbers of Americans cast their votes.
So it will be with racist sentiments in this election.
Anyone not blinded by ivory-tower elitism as these “scholars” are can clearly see that.
6. Menlo Bob | June 16th, 2008 at 8:52 am
“Obama and his wife and kids are African-Americans. McCain and his family are not.”
Oh really?
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/12/27/us/27mccainkids.1.ready.html
7. Kaus | June 16th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Nice pic Menlo Bob. Although the girl looks Indian.
And again, I must say the issue with Obama is more about religion and poltical leanings than race. I KNOW liberals want to think that conservatives are racist….
8. Menlo Bob | June 16th, 2008 at 11:31 am
She was adopted from an orphanage in Bangladesh.
9. Kaus | June 16th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Bobby Jindal relative no less. Good scoop.
10. hokumboy | June 16th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
I’m simply amazed at how the Swift Boat ilk have already turned this race into one of racism with the Obama family being the racists. It’s like their turning a war hero like Kerry into a coward and a slacker like Bush into a great warrior.
You have to hand it to them. They may be slime, but they’re brilliant slime.
11. Mr. Baseball | June 16th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Redrover, if it’s going to be about race, then how did Obama win the nomination? And Menlo Bob, what does any of this have to do with flushing a Koran down a toilet?
12. redrover | June 17th, 2008 at 7:38 am
I think that Obama won the nomination because he was better organized than his opponents, and because Hillary Clinton was unable to shake off the idea that she was entitled to the nomination before it was already lost to her, and because she failed to play the race card early enough to make a difference.
McCain and his sleazeballs will not hesitate to use race, albeit in carefully coded messages, against Obama, just as Hillary began to do in the late primary races, and just as they used Swift Boat propaganda against John Kerry.
hokumboy is right, but unlike John Kerry, Obama has shown himself ready, willing and eager to give back as good as he gets.
I look forward to seeing him fire back at the McCain slime and discredit them and their tactics.
13. kaus | June 17th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Red…”give back as good as he gets” equates to income redistribution. Robin Hood Obama.
“better organized”….yeah, he adds Rezco funds, and hires Che Guevera supporters to work for him…
And by the way….a Koran will flush down the toilet if your toilet is a Kohler.
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