The Bounce
July 27th, 2008 at 03:44pm Pat Cunningham
I had expected that Barack Obama would at best only hold his own in the polls, or perhaps decline a bit, in the wake of his travels abroad.
Even he said the other day that he wouldn’t be surprised if there was a fleeting dip in the numbers.
Moreover, I thought the overblown flap over the hospital visit would hurt him a little.
But the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll results, reflecting surveys from Thursday through Saturday, SHOW Obama opening a lead of 9 percentage points over John McCain.
To be sure, Gallup’s Frank Newport cautions that bounces can be transitory. And, of course, there are likely to be ups and downs for both candidates in polls over the next four months.
But a 9-point lead ain’t bad, especially considering that Obama hasn’t trailed McCain in any polls since these two candidates emerged as their respective parties’ presumptive nominees.
POSTSCRIPT: Incidentally, I saw another poll the other day that showed Obama running 9 percentage points behind McCain among white voters.
The uninitiated may not recognize it, but that’s a great number for Obama. If he runs only 9 points behind McCain among white voters in the November election, he’ll win easily.
Democratic presidential candidates have carried the white vote only once since World War II (LBJ in ‘64), yet they’ve won six elections during that time and lost two others by only very narrow margins. One of those losses (Gore in 2000) was only in the Electoral College. He carred the popular tally by more than 500,000 votes.
Entry Filed under: Gallup Poll, John McCain, Barack Obama
6 Comments Add your own
1. Mike Carroll | July 28th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
There was another Gallop Poll out today (USA/Gallop) which has McCain at 49% and Obama at 45%. ?????
The bigger question is why is Obama running so far behind the Democratic brand.I think this is going to be much closer than you hope.
2. Pat Cunningham | July 28th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Mike: As I said in the post, there’ll be ups and downs in the polls as the campaigns go on. The poll you cite deals only with “likely voters,” which is a little tricky, especially in a year when new registrations are so high. Today’s Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, which is separate from the USA Today/Gallup Poll, has Obama ahead by 8 percentage points among registered voters. There are still 99 days until the election, and lots of things will happen.
3. Pat Cunningham | July 28th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Incidentally, Mike, there’s a polling outfit called Research 2000, which does a lot of work for various media, regardless of ideology. Their latest poll of likely voters, with Bob Barr and Ralph Nader in the mix, has Obama leading by 12 percentage points. I think that survey might be a bit of an outlier, but there it is, for what it’s worth.
4. Mike Carroll | July 28th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
I agree that a lot can happen in 99 days and I would rather have the numbers your side has then mine but, that said, I still think its going to be close.
5. Pat Cunningham | July 28th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Actually, I don’t think it’ll be close in the end. I think it will break one way or another within the next eight weeks, and the leader on Oct. 1 will cruise to victory..
6. Pat Cunningham | July 29th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Mike: There’s some interesting stuff here about registered versus likely voters in polls (check the comments, too):
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/about-that-mccain-4.html
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