Archive for July 30th, 2008
July 30th, 2008
It seems that everywhere I turn today, somebody is telling lies or making excuses for them or applauding them or whatever.
A review in links:
THIS ONE is about oil spills. [UPDATE: My source on this one is in error. See Comments Nos. 2 and 3]
THIS ONE (actually, more than one) is about taxes.
THIS ONE involves a distortion of something Barack Obama said.
THIS ONE is about owning up to a lie.
THIS ONE is about a right-winger applauding something he admits is dishonest.
THIS ONE is about federal budget deficits.
THIS ONE is about the price of coal.
THIS ONE is about a whole pack of falsehoods in an e-mail from a soldier in Afghanistan, which has been roundly refuted by the U.S. Army.
I could go on, but this exercise is too damn depressing.
July 30th, 2008
About 20 years ago, before the rise of the World Wide Web, I wrote a column about what I called “the nudge factor” in public opinion polls.
My focus was on surveys concerning issues rather than political races. And my theory, though doubtless not original, was something that just somehow came to mind rather than from any hypothesis advanced by an expert on the subject.
I argued that lots of people who are surveyed on certain issues, especially those issues that have not been the subject of intense national debate, haven’t really given them much thought and therefore haven’t formulated any serious opinions.
Wouldn’t such people merely declare themselves undecided or indicate that their responses belong in the “don’t know” category? I think not. Many people don’t want to admit ignorance on any but the most arcane matters. They don’t want to look like dummies.
Consequently, as I argued in that column, pollsters tend to unintentionally nudge some people toward giving answers to questions they’ve never previously considered. In such cases, the responses break down, one way or the other, into percentages that are not necessarily representative of the public as a whole. The polls become skewed by the nudge factor.
Something akin to my theory seems to be part of a forthcoming book (above) in which David W. Moore, a former senior editor at Gallup, argues that polls often fail to differentiate between “those who express deeply held views and those who have hardly, if at all, thought about an issue.”
There’s more about the book HERE.
July 30th, 2008
Funny thing: Britney Spears, who is featured in the McCain ad above, has been pretty much in league with McCain in her admiration for President Bush, as we see here:
July 30th, 2008
John McCain’s firm pledge against tax increases turns out to be not so firm, which AROUSES THE IRE of the conservative editorialists at The Wall Street Journal.
July 30th, 2008
My old childhood chum from Freeport, Dan Balz, and one his Washington Post colleagues have a front-page story this morning that PUTS THE LIE to John McCain’s scurrilous charge that Barack Obama dishonorably skipped a visit to wounded U.S. troops at a military hospital in Germany last week.
The story says there is “no evidence that the charge is true” and adds that a McCain adviser admits that it’s part of an effort, in the words of Balz and his colleague, “to portray the Democratic presidential candidate as a craven politician more interested in his image than in ailing soldiers.”
Despite widespread refutations of McCain’s charges, his campaign seems bent on continuing to push the bogus story.
POSTSCRIPT: Jeff Zeleny of The New York Times also has a GOOD PIECE on the controversy this morning.
UPDATE: McCain’s negativism WORRIES some Republicans.
UPDATE II: And then there’s THIS.
UPDATE III: The McCain camp is DISOWNING at least part of its attack ad concerning the hospital visit.
