The voter-registration factor
August 5th, 2008 at 08:56am Pat Cunningham
 
Election Day 2008 is just 13 weeks from today, and polls show a tight race for president between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama.
But in reading those polls, the serious observer of presidential politics should bear in mind one significant caveat that may not be readily apparent and that may skew some polls: the voter-registration factor.
As we see HERE, the trend of recent years shows a decline in the number of registered Republicans and an increase in the number of registered Democrats — a sign perhaps of a looming seismic shift in the political landscape at local, state and national levels.
The reasons for this are numerous and involve demographic changes, including the increasing urbanization of suburbs and greater political involvement by young people and minorities.
Moreover, this imbalance in the registration trend has accelerated this year as public dismay with the Bush administration has grown deeper and as the Obama campaign’s massive ground operation has concentrated on signing up new voters.
Add to all of this the likelihood that voter turnout in November will be considerably higher than in presidential elections of recent decades — just as it was during the Democratic primary season — and you’ve got good reason to view polls with at least a bit of skepticism, no matter whom they show to be ahead by whatever margin.
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4 Comments Add your own
1. Menlo Bob | August 5th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
If this holds, Obama will need every last registered democrat to vote early and often.
2. Pat Cunningham | August 5th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Bob: Your claim that Obama will need the votes of every registered Democrat is not supported by the Rasmussen poll to which you linked. You seem to put too much stock in the headline that reads: “30% of Conservative Democrats Say They’ll Vote for McCain.” But only 18 percent of Democrats call themselves conservative, and if 30 percent of that 18 percent votes for McCain, that’s less than 6 percent of Democrats (although McCain also will get some votes from Democrats who don’t call themselves conservative). Big deal. The poll story also says this: “While Obama is losing some Democratic voters, he begins with a significant advantage over McCain by virtue of the fact that there are far more Democrats in the country than Republicans.” The bottom line in that poll, Bob, is that it shows the two candidates virtually tied. The point of my post is that the massive new registrations make it difficult for pollsters to identify likely voters. I would bet the farm that if the election were held today, Obama would win easily in the Electoral College. The current projection by fivethirtyeight.com, probably the best Web site for this stuff, shows Obama leading McCain 294.9 to 243.1 in electoral votes. So much for your theory. The polls to watch are the state polls. That’s where the election will be won or lost. As the 2000 election showed us, you can win the national popular vote and still lose the election.
3. Pat Cunningham | August 5th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
One other thing, Bob. The latest Associated Press/Ipsos poll, released just today, shows Obama leading by 6 percentage points. Check it out: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iP6aoeuUCqIEo5DHDOCMLHyUOCpgD92C9JQG0
Oh, and the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll has Obama leading by 4 points.
4. Mr. Baseball | August 5th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
I agree with your theory Pat but there’s no way to know if it’s valid until election day. I do feel we could have a repeat of 1980 where the polls were close right up to the election and none of them predicted the Reagan landslide.
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