The Religious Right seems to be afraid of popular evangelist Rick Warren
1 comment August 11th, 2008
The loonies are trying to UPSTAGE the forum at which Pastor Rick Warren (above) will host John McCain and Barack Obama.
Archive for August 11th, 2008
Here’s how the electoral math favors Obama
22 comments August 11th, 2008
Just for the fun of it, I performed a mathematical exercise this morning to see how the electoral votes would break down if I gave John McCain more than the benefit of the doubt.
Using FIGURES from the independent Web site Pollster.com [Note: The numbers may have changed a bit by the time you click on the link, but probably not so much as to refute my hypothesis] I did the following:
I gave McCain all 122 electoral votes in the states where he’s running strongly.
I also gave him all 35 electoral votes in the states that are leaning his way.
And, in a generous gesture, I gave him all 97 electoral votes in the states that are considered toss-ups.
But wait. In an even more generous gesture, I gave McCain 20 percent of the electoral votes in the states that are leaning toward Barack Obama.
So, the only electoral votes I’m giving Obama are the 224 in the states where he’s running strongly and 48 of the 60 in the states that are leaning his way.
The winner: Obama by a score of 272-266.
This dramatizes the fact that the national poll numbers are less important than the state-by-state figures. As the election of 2000 demonstrated, you can lose the national popular vote and still win the presidency in the Electoral College.