Obama’s Electoral College advantage (Part 3)
September 4th, 2008 at 11:08am Pat Cunningham
 
It’s been a while since I last posted one of our patented Applesauce Electoral College analyses, and I figure now would be as good a time as any for an update, because it will make it easier to gauge any significant shift that might result from a Republican Convention bounce in the next week or so.
All of this stuff is based on state-by-state figures from the independent Web site Pollster.com. And, as I’ve done in the past, I’m going to give John McCain huge benefits of the doubt.
Here goes:
I’m giving McCain all 112 electoral votes from the states where he’s running strongly and all 64 electoral votes from the states that are leaning his way. For good measure, I’ll also give him 92 of the 102 electoral votes from the states that are currently considered toss-ups.
And then, to be extra charitable about it, I’ll also give McCain all  29 electoral votes from the states that are leaning toward Barack Obama.
[NOTE: THIS PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH AND THE ONE FOLLOWING IT ARE IN ERROR, AS A KEEN-EYED READER HAS NOTICED. THE PROBLEM AND THE CORRECTED EQUATION ARE STATED IN COMMENTS NOS. 2 AND 4 BELOW. IN SHORT, I’M NOT GIVING MCCAIN THE ELECTORAL VOTES FROM STATES LEANING TO OBAMA. BUT THE FINAL TALLY IS THE SAME AS STATED HERE.)
So, I’m giving Obama only the electoral votes from the states where he’s running strongly and just 10 of the 102 electoral votes from toss-up states.
The winner? Obama by a score of 270 to 268.
These numbers can change, of course, and almost certainly will over the next two months. But the way to bet it now, as most of the folks are doing at the INTRADE PREDICTION MARKET, is that Obama will win in November.
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4 Comments Add your own
1. Edith | September 4th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Why all the postings today, Pat? Surely, you must be feeling defensive and insecure about your dear political party. After Palin’s speech, did you pull a rage-filled all-nighter? Better not blow a gasket, it’s only politics.
2. paul | September 4th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Unfortunately, your math is off here. I would like to see it your way, but if you add up what you gave to McCain, it comes up to 297: 112+64+92+29=297
Your mistake was giving Obama 260 EVs from “strong states,” when he actually would have 260 from Strong and Leaners, according to the Pollster.com analysis.
3. Pat Cunningham | September 4th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Edith: I slept like a baby, and the analysis I’ve offered above confirms that I have no reason to feel insecure about what you call my “dear political party.” Yes, Palin’s speech was packed with lies, but my reaction was not exactly “rage-filled.” Pity would be a better word for it. Anyway, thanks for asking. And don’t call me “surely.”
4. Pat Cunningham | September 4th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Paul: You’re right. I miscomputed. I shouldn’t have given McCain the votes from the states leaning to Obama. Instead, I’ll just give him the votes from his strong states and his leaning states and 92 of the 102 votes from toss-up states. Thanks much.
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