McCain’s Palin bounce gets higher


Volatily in the presidential polls continues apace as John McCain, who trailed Barack Obama by as many as 9 percentage points just a week ago, now LEADS by 10 points in the latest USA Today/Gallup Poll.

Much of the Republican ticket’s upward momentum is attributed to excitement over vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

POSTSCRIPT: Nate Silver has an INTERESTING ANALYSIS of the so-called internals of this latest poll.

POSTSCRIPT II: We’ll  have another patented Applesauce electoral map analysis later in the week after more state polls emerge. This time, I won’t botch the math, as I did last week.

UPDATE: NBC’s latest electoral map has OBAMA AHEAD 228 to 200.

UPDATE II: The RCP map has Obama LEADING by 43 electoral votes.

UPDATE III: The Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll has the race TIED at 44 points each.

UPDATE IV: A new CNN poll, conducted entirely after the Republican Convention, has the race DEAD EVEN. That USA Today/Gallup poll to which I referred at the top of this post is beginning to look like an outlier, perhaps because the sample was confined to so-called likely voters, a tricky business in a year when millions of new voters have been registered and turnout is expected to be the highest in decades.

UPDATE V: Two more polls released late this afternoon:

 ABC/Washington Post: Obama, 47 percent; McCain, 46 percent.

CBS: McCain, 46 percent; Obama, 44 percent.

McCain’s 10-point lead is vanishing before our very eyes.

UPDATE: Wolf Blitzer moments ago (5 p.m. CDT) on CNN: McCain’s “hopes for a convention bounce may be falling flat.”



  1. snuss: Read all the updates on this post. It’s beginning to seem that McCain is the one who got little or no bounce out of his convention. When the Palin bubble bursts, as surely it will, he’ll sink like a rock. By the way, the only people who think Obama has a Socialist agenda are extremists like you.

  2. Mike Carroll

    Pat-cancel the planned Coronation. We have an election.

  3. Mike: We never didn’t have an election. Neither candidate has polled much above the margin of error all summer. But, as I often say, the national polls are misleading. Their sampling is not proportionally distributed among the states, which means they don’t necessarily mirror the contest for electoral votes. Now, if one of the candidates opens a big lead in national polls, that will probably be reflected in electoral votes. As I noted above, in UPDATE II, RealClearPolitics, which is a conservative Web site, has Obama ahead by 43 electoral votes. Even when RCP distributes the electoral votes from current toss-up states on the basis of its best guesses, Obama wins 273-265. As far as I can tell, every respectable analysis of the electoral map gives the lead to Obama, which means that McCain’s lead in national polls is not what it might seem to the uninitiated. Now that you know this, Mike, you’re no longer among the uninitiated — unless you stubbornly choose to be. None of this is to say that Obama will win in November, but I’d rather be in his situation right now than in McCain’s. There’s another factor I’ve been harping on, and that’s the muscle of Obama’s ground game. These cats are extremely well-organized and well-financed. McCain likely will spend more this fall on television while Obama spends more on the ground game. The next two months are gonna be a lot of fun.

  4. Craig Knauss

    I now live in Benton County, Washington. It’s supposed to be even more Republican than Dupage County was back in Illinois. And Dupage has been controlled by the Repubs since the election of Lincoln. So I am rather amused by the increasing number of Obama stickers appearing on vehicles around here. McCain only stands a chance if he distances himself from George Bush. Many Repubs around here have become extremely disenchanted with Bush and a McSame wouldn’t fare any better. The next two months are gonna be tons of fun!!!!!

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