McCain’s Palin bounce gets higher
Volatily in the presidential polls continues apace as John McCain, who trailed Barack Obama by as many as 9 percentage points just a week ago, now LEADS by 10 points in the latest USA Today/Gallup Poll.
Much of the Republican ticket’s upward momentum is attributed to excitement over vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin.
POSTSCRIPT: Nate Silver has an INTERESTING ANALYSIS of the so-called internals of this latest poll.
POSTSCRIPT II: We’ll have another patented Applesauce electoral map analysis later in the week after more state polls emerge. This time, I won’t botch the math, as I did last week.
UPDATE: NBC’s latest electoral map has OBAMA AHEAD 228 to 200.
UPDATE II: The RCP map has Obama LEADING by 43 electoral votes.
UPDATE III: The Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll has the race TIED at 44 points each.
UPDATE IV: A new CNN poll, conducted entirely after the Republican Convention, has the race DEAD EVEN. That USA Today/Gallup poll to which I referred at the top of this post is beginning to look like an outlier, perhaps because the sample was confined to so-called likely voters, a tricky business in a year when millions of new voters have been registered and turnout is expected to be the highest in decades.
UPDATE V: Two more polls released late this afternoon:
ABC/Washington Post: Obama, 47 percent; McCain, 46 percent.
CBS: McCain, 46 percent; Obama, 44 percent.
McCain’s 10-point lead is vanishing before our very eyes.
UPDATE: Wolf Blitzer moments ago (5 p.m. CDT) on CNN: McCain’s “hopes for a convention bounce may be falling flat.”