This is cool stuff with poll numbers
September 20th, 2008 at 08:38pm Pat Cunningham
The Web site FiveThirtyEight.com (the name of which is based on the total number of electoral votes) does some pretty nifty things with the poll numbers it crunches every day.
One of those things is a scenario analysis based on 10,000 computer simulations of the presidential election, using current poll numbers and some historical figures. Once you get the hang of interpreting this analysis, which is not difficult, it makes for interesting reading.
For example, the current analysis above shows that there almost eight chances in 100 that Barack Obama will lose the national popular vote but win the electoral vote, which is what happened to George W. Bush in the election of 2000. There’s barely one chance in 100 that John McCain will achieve that rare distinction.
Today’s analysis also shows that Obama is 5.8 times more likely than McCain to win an electoral landslide in November. On the other hand, it appears unlikely that either candidate will win by such a wide electoral margin (that is, with 375 or more electoral votes).
Anyway, check out the scenario analysis every once in a while. It’s fascinating. You’ll find it on the right-hand side of the FIRST PAGE if you scroll down a bit.
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1 Comment Add your own
1. susan | September 22nd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
The current system does not reliably reflect the nationwide popular vote. The statewide winner-take-all rules makes it possible for a candidate to win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
Nationwide popular election of the President is the only system that makes all states competitive, guarantees that the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide wins the Presidency, and makes every vote equal.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
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