Electoral landslide chances? 3-to-1 against Obama; 93-to-1 against McCain

October 3rd, 2008 at 12:01pm Pat Cunningham

 

As I’ve mentioned here before,  the WEB SITE FiveThirtyEight.com (the name of which is based on the total number of electoral votes) does a lot of cool things with the poll numbers it crunches every day.

My favorite is the  scenario analysis based on 10,000 computer simulations of the presidential election, using current poll numbers and some historical figures.

The current edition of that analysis (above) shows that Barack Obama is about 23 times more likely than John McCain to win the November election in an electoral landslide (that is, with more than 375 electoral votes).

Notice, too, that McCain has only one chance in 128 to carry all the states that George W. Bush won in 2004. 

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