Authors of theory on September polls predict that Obama will win by comfortable electoral margin

October 8th, 2008 at 08:55pm Pat Cunningham

 

Political scientists Tom Holbrook and Jay DeSart have come up with a theory that presidential candidates “generally win states in which they hold a lead in September polls and always win when they lead outside the margin of error.”

On the basis of that model, Holbrook and DeSart project that Barack Obama will win the election with 336 electoral votes to John McCain’s 202 votes.

Holbrook explains the matter HERE (and provides a link to DeSart’s Web page).

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