Latest election scenario analysis
October 15th, 2008 at 01:33pm Pat Cunningham
As we await John McCain’s bid for a game-changer in tonight’s presidential debate, let’s ponder the latest scenario analysis (above) from our friends over at FiveThirtyEight.com.
The numbers here derive from 10,000 computer simulations of the presidential election, using current poll figures and some historical data.
Among the projections of greatest interest are that John McCain has less than one chance in 15 of winning the national popular vote and that Barack Obama is better than an even bet to win an electoral landslide (375 or more electoral votes).
Entry Filed under: John McCain, Barack Obama
4 Comments Add your own
1. Mike Carroll | October 15th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
But Pat, according to an interview the Chosen One granted today, he would be 3 or 4 points more in the lead if it weren’t for Fox News. Poor Barack. I’ll bet Putin, Chavez, Ahmawhatever et al will not be that nasty to him. What a wimp.
2. Craig Knauss | October 15th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Well, Mike, the Chosen One, as you choose to call him, will have to start addressing that in January. McCain, on the other hand, will be enjoying his retirement, unless he gets hired to present “fair and balanced” reporting at Fox News.
3. Pat Cunningham | October 15th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
Mike! You’re back!
4. Mike Carroll | October 16th, 2008 at 7:26 am
Pat-never left. I have been lurking but not commenting due to work demands and some family commitments. As I said a couple of weeks ago, with the implosion of the markets, this election is over. It’s now a coronation. Lets hope Obama abandons some of his loopier ideas (exactly how do you give a tax cut to 95% when close to 40% don’t pay federal income taxes to begin with?) once elected.
He is going to need to develop a thicker skin. He is about to go into the toughest job in the world with the thinnest resume of any President in my lifetime. All of us, including Conservatives, better wish him well.
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