McCainiacs excited by misleading results of new Gallup poll
10 comments October 16th, 2008
The Drudge Report, which usually puts a conservative slant on the news items it serves up, is going bananas today with what it calls a “Gallup Shock,” a poll that shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by only two points, which amounts to a statistical tie.
The right-wing blogosphere, in turn, is waxing jubilant.
But the real news is not quite that exciting.
It all has to do with poll methodology. Gallup issues daily tracking polls in three forms. One is based on surveys of registered voters. Another seeks to measure sentiments among likely voters, using a statistical model calculated to deal with prospects of heavier voter turnout this year. A third form is based on Gallup’s traditional model for measuring likely voters.
This last method seems better suited to past elections, when turnout wasn’t as large as it’s expected to be this year.
Anyway, the first and second versions of the latest Gallup poll both show Obama leading by six percentage points. The third version, the traditional one, shows a lead of just two percentage points. Since that result is at sharp variance with other recent polls, I wouldn’t give it too much credence.
Moreover, none of the latest Gallup readings measure public reaction to Wednesday night’s presidential debate, which has been deemed a victory for Obama in other polls.
There’s more on the Gallup poll HERE.
