McCainiacs excited by misleading results of new Gallup poll
October 16th, 2008 at 05:18pm Pat Cunningham
 
The Drudge Report, which usually puts a conservative slant on the news items it serves up, is going bananas today with what it calls a “Gallup Shock,” a poll that shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by only two points, which amounts to a statistical tie.
The right-wing blogosphere, in turn, is waxing jubilant.
But the real news is not quite that exciting.
It all has to do with poll methodology. Gallup issues daily tracking polls in three forms. One is based on surveys of registered voters. Another seeks to measure sentiments among likely voters, using a statistical model calculated to deal with prospects of heavier voter turnout this year. A third form is based on Gallup’s traditional model for measuring likely voters.
This last method seems better suited to past elections, when turnout wasn’t as large as it’s expected to be this year.
Anyway, the first and second versions of the latest Gallup poll both show Obama leading by six percentage points. The third version, the traditional one, shows a lead of just two percentage points. Since that result is at sharp variance with other recent polls, I wouldn’t give it too much credence.
Moreover, none of the latest Gallup readings measure public reaction to Wednesday night’s presidential debate, which has been deemed a victory for Obama in other polls.
There’s more on the Gallup poll HERE.
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10 Comments Add your own
1. Mike Carroll | October 16th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
But the polls, all or almost all, do show that the race is tightening. I still think Obama wins in a walk but , to reiterate a point I made here months ago, Obama continues to run behind the brand.
2. Juice | October 16th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
The polls are not tightening. McCain is not doing a very good job. Even Dan Quayle is amazed that someone with so little experience can possibly be elected President. God bless you Pat and all your GED-earned friends for “getting out the vote” and showing us productive white folks how you can get back at us Capitalist pigs.
“What Would Karl Marz do?”
3. Orlando Clay | October 16th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Yeah, the producer of a local right-wingnut AM radio show here in Orlando interrupted the host’s daily anti-Obama diatribe to announce the “stunning turnaround” as posted on Drudge. Naturally, the host declared that most of the media was indeed wrong about Obama winning the debate outright, and this poll is “proof positive” that McCain “made a connection with not only Joe the plumber, but Joe and Jane six-pack as well” and the momentum is now swinging in McCain’s favor. Yeah, right, you bet.
4. hokumboy | October 16th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
“Joe the Plumber”
Hell, I’m a Democrat, I can’t afford a plumber!
5. Chuck Sweeny | October 16th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
This is an evenly divided country. Anyone who thinks Obama is 8 or 10 points ahead is sucking applesauce thru (McCormickism) a straw.
As I said in a rrecent column, this election will be an all-nighter, nail-biter, squeaker. It will be 2000 all over again.
Or not.
6. coldhotel | October 17th, 2008 at 7:13 am
It will be close, Obama will win with 300+ electoral votes but 51% of the popular vote. McCain/Palin will not concede and the Republicans will file lawsuits trying to force the election into the Supreme Court. It will indeed be 2000 all over again.
7. LD | October 17th, 2008 at 8:27 am
By the standards of Presidential elections since 1992, Barack Obama is far ahead. For most of this season he has been running about 50 EV ahead of where John Kerry ran at the same point in 2004, which ended in a near-tie. Currently the gap is even larger - it’s nearing Clinton v. Dole proportions. In the face of a down economy and abysmal approval ratings for the Bush Administration, a lead of this size by a Democrat is essentially insurmountable.
http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/10/a-hard-look-at-reality-and-what-you-should-do/
8. Juice | October 17th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
I think you will see Ohio 2008 be an asterisk as Florida 2000 was because of the Acorn voter fraud. It will put Obama over the top and cloud the legitimacy among non-Obama supporters……right or wrong.
9. Craig Knauss | October 17th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
“I think you will see Ohio 2008 be an asterisk as Florida 2000 was because of the Acorn voter fraud.” And what if McCain wins Ohio? What will be the excuse the Repubs use then? By current estimates, Obama could win almost as easily without Ohio as with it. Obama is well ahead in Florida, which makes Ohio almost superfluous. And Obama is ahead in a number of other states that G.W. Bush carried. And in contention in a bunch more. Whether Obama wins by 350 EV or only 270, doesn’t really matter. A win is a win.
10. Juice | October 20th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
It is headed that way, Craig. Obama doesn’t scare me as much as Pelosi and Reed. I doubt Obama will veto anything from congress but he could be a really good President and get a lot of Republican respect if he did. That is what I love about Palin and why i predicted her being picked a year ago. Too bad the media is so unfair and hatefull. She has a proven record of budget surplus government. Period. Does Pelosi/Reed have any intention of holding back big spending? Will Obama demand it? I doubt it .
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