Archive for October 28th, 2008
October 28th, 2008
The Drudge Report, desperately flailing about in its effort to salvage John McCain’s presidential candidacy, is again headlining a poll of dubious methodology that purports to show a close race.
The survey at issue, which comes from Gallup, is at odds with numerous other daily tracking polls, and hardly any of the media are paying it any mind.
The problem has to do with how the poll was conducted. Gallup issues daily tracking polls in three forms. One is based on surveys of registered voters in general. A second version seeks to measure sentiments among likely voters, using a statistical model calculated to deal with prospects of heavier voter turnout this year. A third form, which hardly anybody but Drudge gives much credence, is based on Gallup’s outmoded traditional model for measuring likely voters.
This last method seems better suited to past elections, when turnout wasn’t as large as it’s expected to be this year.
Anyway, the first and second versions of the latest Gallup poll both show Barack Obama leading by seven percentage points. The third version — the traditional one, the one that Matt Drudge wishes were true — shows a lead of just two percentage points.
By comparison, five other tracking polls covering the same period show Obama ahead by an average of more than six percentage points.
For the Gallup stuff, check HERE.
UPDATE: Marc Ambinder has a TERRIFIC PIECE about polls in general and an interesting memo from a McCain spokesman.
October 28th, 2008
Sarah Palin has a curious affliction. She imagines socialism where it doesn’t exist and fails to recognize it when the state government she runs PRACTICES it.
October 28th, 2008
John McCain’s new penchant for calling Barack Obama the would-be “Redistributionist-in-chief” — a term not likely to stir passions among the booboisie — arises from distortions of something Obama said in a radio interview seven years ago.
The Washington Post puts THIS NONSENSE in perspective.
UPDATE: The Associated Press also is DEBUNKING this crap.
UPDATE II: ABC News is JOINING the debunking party.
October 28th, 2008
(Hat/tip to Oliver Willis.)
October 28th, 2008
If you scroll down toward the end of THIS REPORT on a Pew Research Center poll released today, you’ll find some fascinating figures concerning the eight percent of the electorate that has yet to decide how they’ll vote.
Who are these strange people who still haven’t made up their minds?
Well, the typical undecided voter is a white woman over 30 years of age who is less educated and less affluent than the average voter. She’s more likely to live in the South than any other region and attends church more regularly than most voters.
Not surprisingly, she’s also more likely to have no opinions on most of the major political issues of the day. Nor has she been paying much attention to the presidential race.
If you know this woman, perhaps you could encourage her to skip this election and leave it to those of us who actually care about such things.
POSTSCRIPT: Notice, too, that the Pew poll also shows Barack Obama with a wide lead over John McCain.
October 28th, 2008
A new Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll SHOWS Barack Obama leading John McCain by a 2-to-1 margin among the more than 12 million Americans who already have voted.
Obama leads by a similar margin among those who plan to vote early but haven’t yet. The race is closer among those who say they’ll wait for Election Day to vote.
October 28th, 2008
Andew Sullivan does the HONORS.
