Matt Drudge is a sucker for bad polls
October 28th, 2008 at 08:25pm Pat Cunningham
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The Drudge Report, desperately flailing about in its effort to salvage John McCain’s presidential candidacy, is again headlining a poll of dubious methodology that purports to show a close race.
The survey at issue, which comes from Gallup, Â is at odds with numerous other daily tracking polls, and hardly any of the media are paying it any mind.
The problem has to do with how the poll was conducted. Gallup issues daily tracking polls in three forms. One is based on surveys of registered voters in general. A second version seeks to measure sentiments among likely voters, using a statistical model calculated to deal with prospects of heavier voter turnout this year. A third form, which hardly anybody but Drudge gives much credence, is based on Gallup’s outmoded traditional model for measuring likely voters.Â
This last method seems better suited to past elections, when turnout wasn’t as large as it’s expected to be this year.
Anyway, the first and second versions of the latest Gallup poll both show Barack Obama leading by seven percentage points. The third version — the traditional one, the one that Matt Drudge wishes were true — shows a lead of just two percentage points.
By comparison, five other tracking polls covering the same period show Obama ahead by an average of more than six percentage points.
For the Gallup stuff, check HERE.
UPDATE: Marc Ambinder has a TERRIFIC PIECE about polls in general and an interesting memo from a McCain spokesman.
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10 Comments Add your own
1. Chuck Sweeny | October 28th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Nice try, Pat. It’s going to be a close race. Chuck
2. DingDong | October 28th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
I get the feeling it is going to be a lot closer than anyone would like to let on. I know Pat, you don’t believe in the media bias issue, but look at the LA Times. They won’t release a tape that is absolutely news about a candidate. If it was McCain it would already be on youtube. This why I don’t trust the polls. I know way too much about how data can be manipulated.
3. Juice | October 28th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Pat, You know all polls are based on how the question is worded and are of no real value except to keep pundants employed. Any talk by Drudge or Larry King or anyone is based on such. It’s like predicting lottery numbers based on past history. I would agree Obama is a lock because of high registration by people who “have never got a break in the last 150 years of their lives”.
4. Orlando Clay | October 28th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
DingDong wrote: ” I know way too much about how data can be manipulated.”
Spoken like an highly experienced GOP’er. So, tell us, did you serve any time or were you given the option to do community service instead?
5. Orlando Clay | October 28th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Juice wrote: “Pat, You know all polls are based on how the question is worded and are of no real value except to keep pundants employed.”
P-U-N-D-I-T-S. You Cons need less Rush Limbaugh and more Noah Webster.
6. barryfan | October 28th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
much to your conservative chagrin, sweeny, President Obama will be elected with a 100+ electoral college margin regardless of the popular vote.
7. PeterGunn | October 29th, 2008 at 5:49 am
DRUDGE !
Sweeny’s Journalistic role model
8. LD | October 29th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Meta analysis of the polls now show FL, MO, IN, SD and NC leaning towards Obama.
9. LD | October 29th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Sorry that should be ND, not SD. SD is still Red.
10. DingDong | October 29th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Orlando Clay: No Clay, I have not done any time. I work in the Information Technology field, which happens to include a lot of data analysis. The reason that southerns don’t like you. They look at northerns, after screwing up all the northern cities, like Chicago and New York decide that now you want to do the same to the rest of the country.
LD: Meta analysis tends to be flawed, most people attempting to use it do not use data that is closely enough related.
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