Election Day Diary and Open Thread

41 comments November 4th, 2008

 

Except for a few breaks this morning, I’ll be here all day and into the night with frequent political updates from various sources.

Feel free to offer your own observations as we go along.

8:28 p.m.: OBAMA WINS THE PRESIDENCY! Fox News just declared Obama the winner in Ohio, which means McCain’s chances are gone. The only remaining question is whether Obama’s final numbers will constitute a landslide.

7:44 p.m.: The pace of state-winner projections by the networks is picking up. McCain just won Georgia, for example. I’m waiting for the one red-state takeaway by Obama that closes McCain’s path to 270 electoral votes.  It could be soon.

7:26 p.m.: Politico’s Ben Smith says McCain’s loss of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire means “that’s more or less the ballgame.

“Without those two states, the scenarios for McCain become increasingly exotic: He needs to win in Western states he’s losing, or he needs to steal a state in the upper Midwest.”

7:08 p.m.: Obama wins Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (according to NBC), but he hasn’t yet won a state that went for Bush four years ago. Still, winning Penn is a big deal.

6:55: A few moments ago, NBC’s Chuck Todd mentioned the possibility that Obama could carry all the states bordering on Illinois — except for Kentucky, which McCain has won.

The others — Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin — would pretty well cinch the presidency for Obama.

6:48 p.m.: MSNBC calls South Carolina for McCain. No surprise.

6:07 p.m.: CNN has called Kentucky for McCain, Vermont for Obama. No surprise in either case.

5:54 p.m.: WARNING:  The exit poll numbers I’m reporting anywhere in this diary should be taken perhaps with a grain of salt.  Exit polls generally are not as reliable as pre-election polls. The methodology is completely different, and the early exit poll numbers are incomplete.

Having said all that, here are some exit poll numbers I gleaned from Huffington Post. For each of these states, the first number is Obama’s: 

Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent
Michigan: 60 percent to 39 percent

5:30 p.m.: The Drudge Report says exit polls show Obama leading in Pennsyvania by 15 percentage points.

5:28 p.m.: Here are more exit poll NUMBERS, some of them good for McCain, some for Obama.

5:14 p.m.: Exit polls suggest Obama romp? I don’t know where THIS GUY got his numbers — he says they’re leaked exit polls — but they suggest Obama leading by sizable margins in most of the battleground states and by 10 percentage points nationally.

4:12 p.m.: Attention, pinheads! Be afraid. Be very afraid. The Drudge Report has disturbing news this afternoon. Here’s the headline: “Ayers, Farrakhan Vote at the Same Polling Location as Obama.”  Wait’ll Sarah Palin hears about this. Oh, yeah, and Joe the Plumber, too.

3:59 p.m.: The Associated Press REPORTED this afternoon that voting today generally has gone smoothly, despite heavy turnout and long lines. Scattered problems have been reported, but a certain amount of that is to be expected when you’re talking about tens of thousands of polling places.

3:01 p.m.: Here’s a LIST of 25 key counties to watch tonight (including Waukesha County, Wis., just west of Milwaukee).

2:31 p.m.: THIS GUY says Obama’s going to lose.

1:48 p.m.: Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has crunched his last batch of poll numbers and made his final electoral PROJECTION: Obama 349, McCain 189.

1:15 p.m.: When’s this damn thing going to be over? Well, I’m guessing that we’ll know who won the presidency by 8 p.m. CST, at the very latest. If we don’t know by 9 p.m., it might be a long night. Polls in Indiana and Kentucky close in less than four hours.

12:56 p.m.: The Obama campaign is using a massive TEXT-MESSAGING operation to help get out the vote.

12:37 p.m.: Obamaphiles, relax! Frank Newport, the head guy at the Gallup Poll, SAYS “There is no reason in history to suggest” that McCain will prove the polls wrong with a surprise victory.

12:22 p.m.: Here’s ANOTHER LIST of things to watch for in today’s election returns.

12:08 p.m.: HERE’s a pretty good explanation of exit polls.

11:56 a.m.: Holy Toledo! THIS is weird.

11:44 a.m.: In a poll conducted two years ago this week, Americans were asked  whom they would vote for in November 2008 if the presidential candidates were John McCain and Barack Obama. McCain was the WINNER in a landslide.

10:29 a.m.: Well, it looks like Fox News is STILL OBSESSED with Bill Ayers.  Why am I not surprised.

10:14 a.m.: Rachel Maddow SAYS our cumbersome election process amounts to a poll tax.

9:51 a.m.: Gallup Poll SHOWS that most Americans consider this election more important than usual.

9:33 a.m.: Some of America’s leading black voices SHARE their thoughts on the possibility of an African-American being elected president.

9:28 a.m.: THIS GUY says forget the polls — McCain’s going to win.

9:06 a.m.: HERE’s a list of the eight best Election Day movies ever (replete with clips).

9:02 a.m.: HERE’s a video on the Legend of Dixville Notch.

8:45 a.m.: It says HERE that the Washington Redskins’ loss last night is a bad omen for John McCain.

8:40 a.m.: FiveThirtyEight.com SAYS there’s only about a 15-percent chance that Democrats will gain enough Senate seats to achieve a filibuster-proof total of 60.

8:36 a.m.: I’m getting reports from everywhere, locally and around the country, of long lines at polling places.  The weather is good in most places, and massive turnout seems likely. That usually favors Democrats.

7:35 a.m.: HERE are 10 questions for Election Day.

7:04 a.m.: As far as I can tell, Reuters/Zogby was the last poll out in the field prior to today’s voting. It SHOWS Obama with a lead of more than 11 percentage points.

6:58 a.m.: Nate Silver, our friend from FiveThirtyEight.com, has a GUIDE in Newsweek on how to watch the drama unfold tonight.

6:55 a.m.: John McCain’s lead pollster is WARNING against reading too much into exit polls that might be leaked during the day.

6:44 a.m.: The first tally of votes in the 2008 presidential election SHOWS Barack Obama leading John McCain by a count of 15 to 6. 

Here’s the Official Applesauce Election Day Plan

3 comments November 4th, 2008

 

The Election Day schedule here at Applesauce calls for one long post – a diary and open thread, in effect – to which frequent political updates will be added as they’re gleaned from various sources.

I might even declare a presidential winner before the networks or wire services do.

I’ll be here all day (except for two breaks before noon) and into the night, and I invite you to offer your own observations as we go along. But even if you have nothing to say, stop by now and then for timely updates on the political situation. I’ll monitor all the other media so you don’t have to bother.

We’ll even have stuff from the right-wing blogosphere. (Won’t that be fun?) Don’t miss it.