Election Day Diary and Open Thread
November 4th, 2008 at 03:59pm Pat Cunningham
Except for a few breaks this morning, I’ll be here all day and into the night with frequent political updates from various sources.
Feel free to offer your own observations as we go along.
8:28 p.m.: OBAMA WINS THE PRESIDENCY! Fox News just declared Obama the winner in Ohio, which means McCain’s chances are gone. The only remaining question is whether Obama’s final numbers will constitute a landslide.
7:44 p.m.: The pace of state-winner projections by the networks is picking up. McCain just won Georgia, for example. I’m waiting for the one red-state takeaway by Obama that closes McCain’s path to 270 electoral votes. It could be soon.
7:26 p.m.: Politico’s Ben Smith says McCain’s loss of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire means “that’s more or less the ballgame.
“Without those two states, the scenarios for McCain become increasingly exotic: He needs to win in Western states he’s losing, or he needs to steal a state in the upper Midwest.”
7:08 p.m.: Obama wins Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (according to NBC), but he hasn’t yet won a state that went for Bush four years ago. Still, winning Penn is a big deal.
6:55: A few moments ago, NBC’s Chuck Todd mentioned the possibility that Obama could carry all the states bordering on Illinois — except for Kentucky, which McCain has won.
The others — Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin — would pretty well cinch the presidency for Obama.
6:48 p.m.: MSNBC calls South Carolina for McCain. No surprise.
6:07 p.m.: CNN has called Kentucky for McCain, Vermont for Obama. No surprise in either case.
5:54 p.m.: WARNING: The exit poll numbers I’m reporting anywhere in this diary should be taken perhaps with a grain of salt. Exit polls generally are not as reliable as pre-election polls. The methodology is completely different, and the early exit poll numbers are incomplete.
Having said all that, here are some exit poll numbers I gleaned from Huffington Post. For each of these states, the first number is Obama’s:
Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent
Michigan: 60 percent to 39 percent
5:30 p.m.: The Drudge Report says exit polls show Obama leading in Pennsyvania by 15 percentage points.
5:28 p.m.: Here are more exit poll NUMBERS, some of them good for McCain, some for Obama.
5:14 p.m.: Exit polls suggest Obama romp? I don’t know where THIS GUY got his numbers — he says they’re leaked exit polls — but they suggest Obama leading by sizable margins in most of the battleground states and by 10 percentage points nationally.
4:12 p.m.: Attention, pinheads! Be afraid. Be very afraid. The Drudge Report has disturbing news this afternoon. Here’s the headline: “Ayers, Farrakhan Vote at the Same Polling Location as Obama.” Wait’ll Sarah Palin hears about this. Oh, yeah, and Joe the Plumber, too.
3:59 p.m.: The Associated Press REPORTED this afternoon that voting today generally has gone smoothly, despite heavy turnout and long lines. Scattered problems have been reported, but a certain amount of that is to be expected when you’re talking about tens of thousands of polling places.
3:01 p.m.: Here’s a LIST of 25 key counties to watch tonight (including Waukesha County, Wis., just west of Milwaukee).
2:31 p.m.: THIS GUY says Obama’s going to lose.
1:48 p.m.: Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has crunched his last batch of poll numbers and made his final electoral PROJECTION: Obama 349, McCain 189.
1:15 p.m.: When’s this damn thing going to be over? Well, I’m guessing that we’ll know who won the presidency by 8 p.m. CST, at the very latest. If we don’t know by 9 p.m., it might be a long night. Polls in Indiana and Kentucky close in less than four hours.
12:56 p.m.: The Obama campaign is using a massive TEXT-MESSAGING operation to help get out the vote.
12:37 p.m.: Obamaphiles, relax! Frank Newport, the head guy at the Gallup Poll, SAYS “There is no reason in history to suggest” that McCain will prove the polls wrong with a surprise victory.
12:22 p.m.: Here’s ANOTHER LIST of things to watch for in today’s election returns.
12:08 p.m.: HERE’s a pretty good explanation of exit polls.
11:56 a.m.: Holy Toledo! THIS is weird.
11:44 a.m.: In a poll conducted two years ago this week, Americans were asked whom they would vote for in November 2008 if the presidential candidates were John McCain and Barack Obama. McCain was the WINNER in a landslide.
10:29 a.m.: Well, it looks like Fox News is STILL OBSESSED with Bill Ayers. Why am I not surprised.
10:14 a.m.: Rachel Maddow SAYS our cumbersome election process amounts to a poll tax.
9:51 a.m.: Gallup Poll SHOWS that most Americans consider this election more important than usual.
9:33 a.m.: Some of America’s leading black voices SHARE their thoughts on the possibility of an African-American being elected president.
9:28 a.m.: THIS GUY says forget the polls — McCain’s going to win.
9:06 a.m.: HERE’s a list of the eight best Election Day movies ever (replete with clips).
9:02 a.m.: HERE’s a video on the Legend of Dixville Notch.
8:45 a.m.: It says HERE that the Washington Redskins’ loss last night is a bad omen for John McCain.
8:40 a.m.: FiveThirtyEight.com SAYS there’s only about a 15-percent chance that Democrats will gain enough Senate seats to achieve a filibuster-proof total of 60.
8:36 a.m.: I’m getting reports from everywhere, locally and around the country, of long lines at polling places. The weather is good in most places, and massive turnout seems likely. That usually favors Democrats.
7:35 a.m.: HERE are 10 questions for Election Day.
7:04 a.m.: As far as I can tell, Reuters/Zogby was the last poll out in the field prior to today’s voting. It SHOWS Obama with a lead of more than 11 percentage points.
6:58 a.m.: Nate Silver, our friend from FiveThirtyEight.com, has a GUIDE in Newsweek on how to watch the drama unfold tonight.
6:55 a.m.: John McCain’s lead pollster is WARNING against reading too much into exit polls that might be leaked during the day.
6:44 a.m.: The first tally of votes in the 2008 presidential election SHOWS Barack Obama leading John McCain by a count of 15 to 6.
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35 Comments Add your own
1. Mike Carroll | November 4th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Pat-I arrived at my polling place, a church just off Perryville, at 6:20 am, about 10 minutes earlier than usual to avoid the crowds. Wrong.It normally takes about 5 minutes. This morning it took 40 minutes and when I left at 7 a.m. the line was as long as when I arrived.
2. echo4charlie | November 4th, 2008 at 9:33 am
I had the same thing at my polling place. Either everyone who normally votes is going early to avoid a “rush”, or, more people are voting this year. I certainly hope the latter.
It took me 40-45 minutes. I’m glad to see so many voters.
3. LD | November 4th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Any guesses as to voter turn out? I’ll go with 134 million. There are about 153.1 million registered voters.
4. Billybeermonicagar | November 4th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Took us 12 minutes in the door and out in Boone County. Over 400 had voted by 9:00 a.m. Happy to see so many involved in the process.
5. bannernews | November 4th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Just back from voting out in Winnebago County. They said it was non-stop for first three hours. They’ve had 650 voters so far. Usual turnout at this time is around 100.
6. Barry | November 4th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
The article on the use of messaging by the Obama machine left out one step. Pole watchers have a list of probable Obama voters for each precinct, and as they appear to vote, the pole watcher messages the Obama headquarters of the vote. At some point in the day headquarters starts contacting those who have not been checked off the lists.
7. SpeckleMe | November 4th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
I was #455, fire station on Old River Road. Not even a 5 minute wait. I saw they had extra polling booths. I do think they should ask for ID though. I’ve never had that happen.
8. SpeckleMe | November 4th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
…and more Rev. Wright commercials. Wanna bet the McPalin camp helped pay for those!
9. equalityrkfd= | November 4th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
OBAMANATION08 OBAMANATION08 OBAMANATION08
OBAMANATION08 OBAMANATION08 OBAMANATION08
OBAMANATION08 OBAMANATION08 OBAMANATION08
OBAMANATION08 OBAMANATION08 OBAMANATION08
10. DingDong | November 4th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Does this help?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCeD1RcJjAg
11. echo4charlie | November 4th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Some very reliable, truthful people have told me that they walked into Starbuck’s coffee shops today with their “I Voted” sticker on their shirt, and found out that there is a promotion where if you have said sticker, they’ll give you a free coffee.
I don’t know what size, or if it includes the specialty drinks. But, I know coffee of some size, or another, is free for having voted.
I didn’t see anything on their website, but, these people wouldn’t steer me wrong.
http://www.starbucks.com/
If you’ve voted, and are in the vicinity of a Starbuck’s, it’s worth stopping in.
12. LD | November 4th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Echo, a tall coffee is free for anyone who asks.
A couple other election day promos, although no locations near us…
Krispy Kreme is giving out free star shaped donuts today.
Ben & Jerry’s is giving out free ice cream between 5pm and 8pm
13. swamprat | November 4th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Yes, Starbucks is giving out free coffee to anyone that has voted. It is a new type of exit poll. They ask if you want your coffee black or cream.
14. LD | November 4th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Juice, so how in the world did McCain, with all his experience run such a poor campaign and Obama with so little experience run such a spectacular campaign?
Who would you rather have guiding your football team? Brad Johnson, currently the most experienced NFL QB with 17 Seasons under his belt or a young Eli Manning who is only in his 5th season.
Experience is overrated, especially when you’re washed up.
15. Linda Grist Cunningham | November 4th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Thanks, PTC, for the work today and through the elex. And, yes, you’re gonna keep on keeping on. Now, if I can just find a right winger with the same research and writing skills you have, we’ll have a perfect blogging team.
16. LD | November 4th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Linda, may I have a go?
Alright you liberals, let me try to break it down for you. so you can finally get it through your thick skulls that Barack Hussein Obama’s economic plan can never work.
In the early 80s Ronald Reagan, the most brilliant financial mind of all time, gave us the Law of Trickle Down Economics. This law is the basis of all fiscal policy and by law, cannot be broken. Money can only flow down, never up. So it is imperative that persons in the top 5% tax bracket get the biggest breaks, otherwise this money can never help grow our economy. The top 5% is the engine that drives us all, they have the most purchase power and can buy the most things. As they are also the most patriotic, they only buy goods and services manufactured in the USA. They own the largest companies and they do their darndest to keep those companies and assembly lines in this country. They have the most money so by law they can buy the majority of cars, trucks, mega yachts, etc. They also invest in US infrastructure, by purchasing Municipal Bonds and such.
Now lets see what happens when you take away money from them and give it to the poorest people. Poor people don’t spend money. They are poor!! Poor people never have anything! It’s true…they don’t have jack sheeit, because they don’t buy jack sheeit. Go ask a homeless person when was the last time he bought an mega yacht or thousands of dollars in bonds to build a bridge. Never? I think I’ve made my point. Poor people either save their money by putting it in some kind of liberal Al Gore lock-box (which means it’s never spent) or they buy drugs. What happens if they buy drugs? Well the drug dealer gets the money, but as our war on drugs is the greatest in the world, that dealer ends up in prison where he isn’t able to spend the money. Money does not flow upwards.
Now lets look at the middle class, or the liberal elitists. If you give them money, they will spend it on goods from China, cars from Germany and Japan, and wine and cheese from France. These people also like giving money to the poor (see paragraph 2). Since they refuse to buy US made products, the money can’t flow up to the good patriotic 5% who own the companies. This makes it hard for those top 5% to compete and they are forced to move their call centers and assembly lines to other countries. Money does not flow upwards.
Have I made it clear?
17. swamprat | November 4th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
LD. Laws, Ronny Raygun a financial genius, top 5% is the engine that drives us, most patriotic? Can I have some of what your smoking?
If your theory is true tell me why the economy is in the tank. Companies are closing and going bankrupt all over. The rich have been getting big tax breaks since GWB has been in charge. Probably because the top 5% are spending that money like you say?
And poor people don’t save. They spend it to stay alive.
Why don’t you put your rediculous comment over on hillbuzz.com? You’re a bonehead like Ronny.
18. LD | November 4th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Swamp, it was satire.
19. swamprat | November 4th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
It’s over!!! America has won!!!
20. SpeckleMe | November 5th, 2008 at 1:00 am
…after all the hatred, the name calling, the Hussein slams, the “just a community organizer” slams……the terrorist slams……..the Rev. Wright, the Bill Ayers, the Illegal Aunt slams, Obama made it through to the end. This country will now get back on track. Shame on Bush and shame on the nasty campaign McCain had.
21. PeterGunn | November 5th, 2008 at 2:33 am
History was made today fella’s
What a great moment in history this is for all of us to witness the first black President of the United States in our
lifetime.
Thank God
President Barrack Obama
Has a nice ring to it, Dont it boys
22. PeterGunn | November 5th, 2008 at 7:10 am
Looks Like SNuss hates America today
more than he did yesterday
Get over it Limbaugh Boy, You lost
Pinhead
23. barryfan | November 5th, 2008 at 8:43 am
President Barack Hussain Obama!
24. equalityrkfd= | November 5th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Yes We Can! Yes We Did!
25. Mike Carroll | November 5th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Pat-I have been trying to get into your site since 10pm last night. Must be very heavy traffic.
At any rate, my congratulations. Your victory gift from me is a one day moratorium re my commentary. Enjoy. I revert to the mean tomorrow.
26. echo4charlie | November 5th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Thanks, Pat, for the fun site. Things did get salty once in a while. But, it always stayed fun. I learned a lot.
Congratulations to President Obama.
Whether President Obama was each of our individual choice for President, or not, we need to back him now that he’s in office. The last thing any of us should want, or, this country needs, is for him to fail.
The term “steep hill to climb” is drastically understated with respect to President Obama. He will be tested very early into his term, and not just with the economy and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Iran has had two earthquakes in the last several weeks (registering 4.0 and 5.0 respectively), and some media outlets are reporting that an unidentified Iranian associated with Iran’s nuclear program has stated that the earthquakes were really underground nuclear weapons tests. Let me stress that this is an unconfirmed report. While the Associated Press did report a 5.0 earthquake in Iran the other weekend, as of last Friday, the allegation that the quake was connected to Iranian nuclear testing has not been picked up by other major Israeli news services such as the Jerusalem Post, Ynet, or Haaretz.
True or false, my guess is Israel won’t sit on their hands much longer, and they’ll be looking to the US for support on a joint strike (on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities). Wheter they’re being baited, or the information washes out to be correct, I think we’ll see some action there before the New Year.
We need to pray for Pesident Obamas discernment, wisdom, and the safety of himself and his family (especially from some of our homegrown radical nuts).
Let’s see how he does.
27. Billybeermonicagar | November 5th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Well said charlie.
28. Orlando Clay | November 5th, 2008 at 10:14 am
PeterGunn wrote: “Looks Like SNuss hates America today
more than he did yesterday…”
Nah, Peter, folks like SNuss don’t hate America. They’re just angry at the 62M+ of us who overwhelmingly rejected a continuation of the past 8 years of failure and misery inflicted upon our country by the Bush/Cheney cabal. For some reason, they can’t understand our desire to return peace, prosperity, and worldwide respect to our country.
The only regret I have about the election of Obama is that it most likely puts the kibosh of Joe The Plumber’s record deal. I was really looking forward to his debut album and hearing him sing a duet with Charlie Daniels during Sean Hannity’s annual traveling propaganda show next summer.
29. LP | November 5th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Ok, well, once the #’s of people on Welfare go up and taxes skyrocket and peoples 401k’s go to hell, and the government controls every aspect of peoples money and lives…..then all you Obama supporters have noone to blame but yourselves…opps, my mistake, the main supports of Obama ARE the people on Welfare.
Hopefully he wont screw up the nation too bad with his inexperience….
You know what they say…the only difference between Obama and Osama is a little BS.
30. Pat Cunningham | November 5th, 2008 at 11:25 am
LP says Obama’s main support comes from people on welfare. Of course, he has no evidence to support that contention, but his kind never need evidence. They live in their own little world of nonsense and bigotry.
31. bannernews | November 5th, 2008 at 11:35 am
There are more people on welfare, 401ks with equities are in the toilet, illegal wiretaps, were in two wars that hve gone on for longer than WWII, the economy is racing to the bottom joblessnes is climbing, we just spent at least 700 billion dollars to bail out Rebublican Alpha capitalists and were going into winter.
Gee I wonder why the Rebublican brand just got it’s ass kicked..
32. PeterGunn | November 5th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Listening too and reading through the local Reich Wing Nut’s prophesies
of doom and gloom for America now that the Boy King and his hand picked
successor were whipped like step children in a landslide of voter rejection just amazes me.
Makes one wonder, What in the hell do they see the current situation as being ?
Do they actually BELIEVE that America is doing so well now under the incompetence
and corruption of the Greed is Good crowd ?
These people are so far out of the mainstream and continue to be if their words are to be taken into account.
Even after taking a thumping in 2006 and again now in 2008 you’d think they have come around to smell the coffee, or at the very least acknowledge which way the wind is blowing, But no.
What they do instead is blame America for its unwillingness to bend to THEIR
WILL.
Many are this very moment actually scheming physical violence against
the government of the United States on freepper type forums and websites
Even the Rrstar and the My Stateline sites are spewing their noxious fumes.
I’ve always said that people like SNuss and their “Crews” were dangerous and
unbalanced..
I think this also puts the Neo-Con movement into the hate America
category and should probably be put under George Duby’s vaunted surveillance system designed to protect America from terrorist both foreign and domestic.
Hopefully (As a Democrat) they’ll allow these maniacs to remain in control of the republican party.
It’s no wonder they went more than forty years of political irrelevance as they walked through the desert of rejection for so long before the ‘94 elections.
If true Conservatives don’t regain control and boot out the extremist, The Neo-Cons , The Religious Right and the blinded faithful in the cult of republicanism, This is exactly
where they are headed.
The smart ones know this, The O’s, Limbaughs and FoxNews Fanatics will never admit responsibility or demand accountability, That’s they’re way.
Blinded by hate they don’t even understand or even care about the historical significance of this moment
I’ve seen the same exact thing as a boy
when the assassinations of Dr. King and the Kennedy’s were announced.
Just another dead black man and his white supporters was the attitude then as it is now in 2008.
Amazing Huh.
33. echo4charlie | November 5th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I’m not sure I fully comprehended what I just read (?)………………….
34. swamprat | November 5th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
snuss. In Oct. 2001 Shrub’s approval was 90%. That means anything above 50% was Democrats. Now his approval is in the mid 20%. So anything below 50% is Republicans who don’t support him.
So Democrats did, but Republicans don’t.
35. Echo4Charlie | November 5th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
I’m no leftie, but, we need to keep moving forward. Get back to our goal, and continue to move forward. You can’t create results if you constantly sit on what has gone wrong.
President Obama wasn’t my choice, but, that’s who’s doing the job startong January 20th, and this guy has a nasty road to hoe. Russia is becoming beligerent, Iran is a problem (and supporting Hezbullah and Hamas), we’re still fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Taliban is still in operation, Al Queda is still in operation, there’s going to be a lot of upset Obama voters who completely misinterpreted what he said (and any promises he made will still require congressional approval).
Pesident Bush got beaten up by the American people really badly, and often. I stand by my claim that he is no dummy, and we’ll, looking back 10 years from now, see that. Our national security is paramount, and the international threat that we face from Russia and Iran (and their friendship) has just escalated.
This guy is our president, and needs our support.
I don’t see waiving a falg at half-mast, as I’ve seen a lot, and heard a lot of people do. Lets just see what this guy brings to the table, and give him a chance to work.
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