Nate Silver, who’s an expert at this sort of stuff, SAYS there’s only one chance in 16 that Republicans will take over the U.S. Senate in the November elections.
That’s a slightly lesser likelihood, notes Silver, than the Democrats picking up a seat or two to regain a 60-seat majority.
An excerpt:
Although national trends continue to move slightly toward the Republicans — since the start of the year, our senate model’s trend estimate has them gaining ground on the Democrats at the rate of about 1 point per month in a typical race — that momentum was offset this month by recruiting failures in Wisconsin and New York, where Tommy Thompson and George Pataki declined to run. Therefore, our simulation projects Republicans to gain a net of 4.0 Senate seats in this November’s elections, a figure unchanged since last month.
Related posts:
- Tentative forecast: Dems will hold 54 seats in next Senate
- If somebody wants to wager that GOP will win control of Senate, take the bet
- Senate Repubs on pace to triple old record for filibusters
- MIT study says Americans would get more for less money under Senate health bill
- GOP obstructionism stalls action on hundreds of bills in Senate
There will likely be one additional candidate in the Wisconsin race, a guy named Ron Johnson from Appleton who will have the money to go head to head with Russ (I want to take the money out of politics) Feingold wo currently has a war chest of about 4 million dollars.. We should know more in several weeks.
In my state the great Republican hope is some farmer who used to play NFL football. And, yes, that’s the extent of his experience. He’s running against a well respected, except by the far right, opponent who’s done a lot for our veterans. That’s one seat that’s not going anywhere guys. Sorry.