Faulty as it is, generic congressional poll shows that GOP is strongest in the South


I’ve never put much stock in generic congressional polls — that is, polls that ask a cross-section of Americans which party they want to control Congress in the next session.

Congressional seats are won district-by-district, not by a national vote. There probably have been years when most respondents in a generic congressional poll favored the party that did NOT win control of Congress.

In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, the generic congressional question shows a 44-43 lead for Democrats over Republicans. But, as I say, that doesn’t mean Democrats will maintain control, even if those national numbers pertain on election day. It all depends on the contests in individual districts.

Having said all that, I was fascinated by the chart above (from The Washington Monthly Web site), which shows Democrats leading on the generic ballot in three out of four regions of the country — and quite widely in the Northeast.

Even more interestingly, the chart shows that the Republican Party is especially strong only in the South.

Let’s face it, folks: It’s increasingly a regional party.



  1. bigdave: You said in Comment No. 1 that I needed to publish this post “so when the voting is done in November you and your liberal friends can claim VOTE FRAUD!”

    That is a complete non sequitur. This post provides me no grounds to claim vote fraud. What the hell are you talking about?


  2. Mr. Funfsinn

    It is a regional party, with at least 270 electoral votes. http://www.mediaresearch.org/notablequotables/bestof/2004/best1-3.asp
    This polling is flawed, but regional groupings are always false. Most of the west is grouped with California, most of the Midwest is grouped with Illinois and Michigan. And Pennsylvania is grouped with the northeast.

  3. dave, dave, dave: When are you going to learn how to read?

    Nothing in this post denies that the Democrats will lose lots of seats this fall. That’s almost always the case in midterm elections for the party that holds the White House.

    The post makes two basic points: 1) Generic congressional polls can be misleading because congressional races are won district-by-district, not by a national vote. 2) The Republican Party’s greatest strength is in the South.

    The poll to which I’ve referred here was commissioned by the Wall Street Journal (along with NBC News). The WSJ is owned by the same company that owns Fox News. But you seem to think that the numbers were cooked to favor liberals. Why would Rupert Murdoch want to spend his money on a poll that favors liberals?

    The last two paragraphs of your comment make absolutely no sense and have no relation whatever to this post. (One of them even consists of two non-sentences):

    “Allowing democrats to claim vote fraud when the democrats lose in November. Just like the democrats did the two elections before Obama won!

    “Now prove that wrong!”

    Honestly, dave, I don’t know how you ever graduated from high school (if, in fact, you did).

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