Nate Silver says GOP has one chance in four to gain control of U.S. Senate


For my money, Nate Silver is the best numbers cruncher in politics, which makes any analysis from him worthy of our attention.

Take THIS ONE, for example.



  1. whitelie: Your implied attribution of the slogans “Death to the Corporations! Death to Evil Capitalism!” to Democrats is just foolish right-wing rhetoric. You’ve been hanging around at too many Tea Party rallies.

    Perhaps I should attribute these slogans to Republicans: “Death to non-whites! Death to non-Christians!”

    Silly, right? Well, no more so than the crap you’re peddling.

  2. whitelie: You seem not to have noticed that Larry Sabato doesn’t disagree with Nate Silver. Sabato, too, sees a GOP takeover of the Senate as unlikely.

    You should read the piece to which you’ve linked.

  3. I’m confident that Republicans will win in Illinois, Nevada, and California. But as Silver notes, Wisconsin’s Feingold only has a 33% chance of losing. I’m also doubtful Rossi can win in Washington, even with the small lead he has today.

    Assuming I’m correct, that would give the GOP 9 seats resulting in a 50-50 Senate split for the next two years.

    I’d really like to hear Pat’s prediction on the toss-up states. Surely he doesn’t expect a Democratic sweep?

  4. whitelie: You’re not making any sense with this line: “Pat, that was sarcasm toward one of the bloggers who condemns our corporate masters.”

    One of what bloggers? There’s nothing in this thread about that stuff.

    If you’re going to aim your lame sarcasm at a certain target, identify the target — unless it’s plainly obvious, which is not the case in this instance.

  5. Stephanie

    Pat, When all else fails you race-bait.

    “Death to non-whites! Death to non-Christians!”

  6. Stephanie: You apparently don’t even recognize that I labeled that stuff as silly. I used those slogans purely for purposes of comparison with the crap whitelie was peddling.

    Try to keep up, Stepanie, if you can.

  7. Neftali,

    I am obviously watching (and participating) in the Wisconsin race closely. I think it may be the determining factor in control of the Senate and therefore the Democrats will likely dump millions into the Feingold campaign. The likely Republican candidate Ron Johnson is an interesting political novice who has committed millions of his own hard earned fortune to try and win the seat. I think it will be very close.

    It is likely that voter turnout will be very high for the Republican/anti-Democrat vote as the governor’s seat will also be contested. There is a strong anti-Democratic feeling after Jim Doyle and the Democrats tanked the state budget here.

    Scott Walker has been the county executive in Milwaukee for 8 years and is well liked even by fiscally conservative Democrats. This will serve him well in the state wide race.

  8. Stephanie

    Pat, I know exactly what you did. Any chance you can race-bait or name call you’re right on top of it. Where exactly did you get these sloagans…yours?

  9. Stephanie apparently is one of these Pollyannas who think there’s no racism, especially among conservatives.

    Stephanie apparently hasn’t seen some of the signs at Tea Party rallies.

  10. Wow, Peanut lives deep in the bowels of the Cunningham archives. Awesome. I really miss his witty and reasoned repartee.

  11. I would call them hypocrites.

  12. Stephanie

    Pat, I think that the white man ( aka the Democratic Party ) keeping generations of Negro/Black/African Americans dependent on Government for three generations is R acist! all the while millions of legal immigrants from accross the world migrate to our shores and borders to find a better life and ….funny thing….Do!

    I also thik its time to update your Apple Sauce photo. I’ll admit you were cute in High School but we really want to see what you look like in 2010.


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