|

Here’s a think tanker who says midterm elections won’t be so bad for Democrats

00000002556699044_234bc96aed.jpg 

I’m not nearly as optimistic as Simon Rosenberg (above), president of the progressive think tank NDN, but he makes some INTERESTING POINTS.

A few excerpts:

You’ve got trend lines where one party is dropping and one party is gaining — it’s indisputable at this point. If you’re a Republican right now, and you look at this environment, the party that’s dropping a month out usually loses. If you’re a candidate or a political party in a close election and you’re dropping a month out, and the other guy’s rising, you usually lose, because those dynamics are very hard to adjust.

(Snip)

We know the election has shifted. There’s been a four- to six-point shift toward the Democrats. Do those trends continue? Do the Democrats pick up another four to  six points this month? The most reasonable scenario now of what happens in the next month is that the Democrats claim another three to six points and end up either even in the generic or slightly ahead, and certainly ahead in the non-Southern parts of the country.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, Nate Silver SEES chances for a Republican takeover of the House improving.

Share:

8 Comments

  1. Neftali

    I’ll trust statistician guru Nate Silver over Rosenberg anytime.

    In Silver’s column yesterday he said, “Our model now estimates that the Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week.”

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/08/projected-republican-gains-approach-50-house-seats/

    Some other interesting notes about this year’s House candidates:

    TX-4 The oldest member of the House (87 years), and former Democrat, Ralph Hall (R) appears likely to serve another two years.
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/texas/4

    IL-18 The youngest member of the House (29 years), Aaron Shock, will likely win again.
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/illinois/18

    Two notable Republican doctors, Charles Boustany (LA-7) and Tom Price (GA-6) are running uncontested.

    Unfortunately, GOP representation from Hawaii will be short lived as Charles Djou (R) is losing to Colleen Hanabusa (D). However, I do find it cool that Hanabusa is a Buddhist.
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/hawaii/1

    Kristi Noem (R) in SD-1 will win. She’s also famous for having received more than 20 speeding tickets over the past 21 years
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/south-dakota/1

    Unfortunately, two my of my least favorite liberals will likely be back.
    Jan Schakowsky
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/illinois/9
    and of course Nancy Pelosi
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/california/8

    Of course, Michele Bachman will also return
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/minnesota/6

    Here’s some GREAT NEWS…Alan Grayson may be kicked out:
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/florida/8

    Finally, we may have the tallest politician ever. Former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) who stands 6′ 11″ looks poised to be the next governor of Oregon
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor/oregon

  2. Chuck Sweeny

    This is exactly what Democrats were saying in early October of 1994. Enough said.

  3. Mr. Funfsinn

    It will be a lot worse. Rep. Oberstar and Rep. Dingell are both in tight races. If those races went Republican, a hundred others could. The Republican advantage in the Gallup voter turnout models is off the charts. What those polls suggest would be unprecedented. According to the AP-GfK, the Democrats have lost the white working class. The white working class used to be the Democrat Party. I’m sure that some of these Congressmen wish that it still was. My guess is that other demographics will follow them.

  4. Neftali

    Mr. Funfsinn – Both the Democrats you mentioned have very little chance of losing. What’s your obsession with the “white working class” anyway? I guess Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and Indians don’t matter to you?

    Dingell
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/michigan/15

    Oberstar
    http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/minnesota/8

  5. Funfsinn: Wake up. There’s no such thing as the “Democrat Party.”

  6. Mr. Funfsinn

    Who ever said that every other conceivable group did not matter? I certainly did not say that, BUT I am saying that white working class Americans matter A WHOLE LOT since they comprise a large segment of the American population and since they have tend to have those other group\’s economic interests in mind. Without those votes, Democrats won\’t win.

  7. Neftali

    Funfsinn – Your “white working class” will be the minority in the not too distant future. Republicans can’t win without thinking about all Americans.

  8. Mr. Funfsinn

    If Dingell were to lose, would you agree with my assertion that Republicans could take back a hundred other districts like it? http://detnews.com/article/20101008/POLITICS02/10080392/1022/rss10
    I never said that those other groups aren’t relevant, BUT I am saying that it is poor politics to ignore a segment of the American population that built up your political party. That mentality will tip this and the next election to the Republicans and there is nothing that Barack can do about it, unless he starts representing those people.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

CAPTCHA Image

*

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>