I’m not nearly as optimistic as Simon Rosenberg (above), president of the progressive think tank NDN, but he makes some INTERESTING POINTS.
A few excerpts:
You’ve got trend lines where one party is dropping and one party is gaining — it’s indisputable at this point. If you’re a Republican right now, and you look at this environment, the party that’s dropping a month out usually loses. If you’re a candidate or a political party in a close election and you’re dropping a month out, and the other guy’s rising, you usually lose, because those dynamics are very hard to adjust.
We know the election has shifted. There’s been a four- to six-point shift toward the Democrats. Do those trends continue? Do the Democrats pick up another four to six points this month? The most reasonable scenario now of what happens in the next month is that the Democrats claim another three to six points and end up either even in the generic or slightly ahead, and certainly ahead in the non-Southern parts of the country.
UPDATE: Meanwhile, Nate Silver SEES chances for a Republican takeover of the House improving.