There is no shortage of pundits and wishful thinkers who say that Republican victories in this month’s midterm congressional elections bode ill for President Obama’s chances of winning a second term.
But there also are a few contrarian opinions in that regard, even on the Republican right.
An excerpt from Rove’s piece:
Republicans should sober up. It is always difficult to defeat a sitting president. Since World War II, three have been defeated for re-election and two decided not to run again. But five have sought and won second terms…
Republicans should not count on Mr. Obama imploding but assume the race ahead will be difficult. If history is any guide, it will be.
An excerpt from the piece by Young and Clark:
The 2010 electoral cycle, with the poorest performing economy in a generation, was a change election which favored the party out of power – the Republicans. This means that there was no fundamental shift in American values, or a “new Republican mandate,” but instead that the election was the result of the natural ebbs and flows of voter sentiment, driven by larger economic forces…
Obama’s relative odds for retaining the White House will depend on voter desire for change or continuity. We believe that, even now at this nadir, Obama is the favorite for several reasons.