The way I figure it, Rick Santorum would be the second choice among most of those who will vote for Newt Gingrich in next week’s Illinois Republican primary election.
If that’s the case, Gingrich likely will help Mitt Romney avoid a loss to Santorum in the Prairie State.
You see, THIS POLL (with a stated margin of error of 2.2. percentage points) shows Romney six points ahead of Santorum, 37-31, with Gingrich garnering 14 percent of the vote. If three-fourths of the votes for Gingrich went to Santorum instead, the former Pennsylvania senator would win.
UPDATE: On second thought, perhaps I’m wrong about this.
Gallup says HERE that Santorum and Romney are tied for second choice among Gingrich voters. I don’t suppose that the situation in Illinois would be greatly different from what Gallup sees among Republican voters nationwide.
Delegates are elected directly in Illinois and NOT tied to the popular vote, which makes your “figuring” wrong. The popular vote for President does not determine delegates in Illinois and is not even an advisory vote. It’s more like a straw poll.
Rick Santorum did not slate enough delegates to win the nomination, in key states where that is the process like Illinois and moving forward, other states as well.
It’s disappointing that the media in Illinois has not done more to inform voters of the process by which we will elect our delegates to the national GOP convention in August.
People who waste their vote for a candidate who has no delegates on the ballot will be making a huge mistake. Illinois delegates are NOT tied to the popular vote!
Map link and delegate information: http://illinoiswithnewt.org/map-find-your-district/
Dawn: Winning the popular vote in Illinois would be a huge psychological boost for Santorum’s campaign, as were his popular-vote victories in other states where delegate distribution was not tied to statewide vote totals.
Besides, while Santorum’s chance of winning the GOP nomination remains slim, it’s a damn sight better than Gingrich’s.
I have endorsed Mr. Santorum’s candidacy and strongly believe that he is the best choice on Tuesday.
I have posted the reasons for my choice at the link:
http://allhands-ondeck.blogspot.com/2012/02/all-hands-on-deck-blog-endorses-rick.html