The momentum is on the incumbent’s side, as we see HERE:
Barack Obama has a 48% to 39% advantage over Mitt Romney among independent voters in 12 key swing states. He first moved ahead of Romney among this group in February after being tied in January and trailing last year.
The results are based on the most recent USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll, conducted March 20-26, among voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The poll preceded Romney’s Tuesday victory in the key Wisconsin primary that made his nomination look increasingly inevitable. Romney’s closest pursuer in the Republican nomination race, Rick Santorum, fared much worse versus Obama among independents in the Swing State poll, trailing 53% to 32%.
Overall [meaning among voters in general, not just independents], Obama leads Romney by 51% to 42% in the swing states.