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Poll: Sixty-one percent of Americans expect Obama to win

Yesterday, I reported HERE that a new poll from CNN shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by mostly wide margins in eight separate categories of personal attributes ranging from honesty and leadership to empathy for the middle class.

I failed, however, to make note of two other fascinating aspects of that poll:

1) Two-thirds of Americans say they’ve made up their minds about how they’ll vote in the November presidential election. The percentages are roughly the same for Obama voters and Romney voters alike.

2) Sixty-one percent say they expect Obama to defeat Romney.

Of course, intervening events could change these numbers between now and Nov. 6.

The raw data for the CNN poll are HERE.

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16 Comments

  1. Do you ever get the feeling that people just vote for whomever they believe is going to win?

  2. Milton Waddams

    This could be a double edged sword for Obama. If his supporters and others expect that he’s going to win, they may not come out and vote for him figuring it’s a lock.

  3. Milton Waddams

    Jared:

    There’s definitely some truth to that. People have a herd mentality and like to back a winner. Or expected winner, as the case may be.

  4. Milton: I don’t think voter complacency will be a problem for Obama in November.

    In the last month or so of the 2008 campaign, most folks expected that he’d win — but his supporters turned out anyway.

    Actually, the dynamic could work the other way this year. Hardcore conservatives, who have never liked Romney very much anyway, might be less than enthused about voting if they figure the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

  5. Milton Waddams

    Obama could win by default. Looks like the elusive voter fraud that the GOP has been blabbering about has shown its face. That face is Mittens. The irony of the news that the GOP candidate for President committed voter fraud is almost too much for me. I love that he registered his place of residence as his sons basement. Mint Rawmoney living in a basement? As if.

    http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/06/did-mitt-romney-commit-voter-fraud

  6. Phew…for a minute I thought this was a real poll, but now understand it’s a sham. Sixty one percent of Americans expect Obama to win. The reality of it is that he is trailing in just about every real poll and the Liberal scum machine is just getting revved up. One doesn’t have to look far to find “Elusive voter fraud” in east Tn. But then again, that was only a couple of months ago when a local Sheriff couldn’t fill in fake absentee ballots quick enough…that is until he got caught, was charged, convicted and the election overturned….in favor of the GOP candidate.

  7. Credit to Milton though, the herd mentality is right on. After all, Obama won over 90% of the black vote. And Pat, you’re right too, voter complacency was not a factor in the mid-term 2010 shellacking Dems received. But rest assured, Republican voters will have a huge turn out against the jive master. And I’m willing to wager that there is a considerable, very mind you, number of Independents and Democrats that will see that he’s a one trick pony. Dividing a country, passing legislation that is now under SCOTUS scrutiny (as he attempts to belittle and insult their role in our three tiered system), having a Justice Department that is culpable in the death of a US Border Agent, handing out billions of green backs to failed green policies and offering his best attempt at an energy policy by suggesting that we “inflate our tire pressure” is not a record of accomplishments to stand on…at all. The only thing he’s competent in is being an agitator…now that he has a long history of accomplishments of.

  8. bill doesn’t like the results of the poll cited in this post, so he says it’s not a “real poll.” Of course, bill doesn’t explain why it’s not a real poll.

    Oh, and I infer from bill’s references to Obama as a “jive master” and an “agitator” that bill’s a racist.

  9. Of course you infer a derogatory statement like that. How totally predictable. I oppose his policies and your thoughts and I’m labeled as being a racist (that’s that divisive thing I mentioned:). Tell me how being an agitator is racist? And Obama “kidding, teasing or exaggerating” is consistent with Jive…look it up. It, too, is a fact Jack.

    Regarding the CNN Poll, I concede. It’s as real as any MSNBC or Huffington Post Poll.

  10. bill: Actually, CNN polls are as “real” as those commissioned by most major media, be they liberal outlets like The New York Times or conservative outlets like The Wall Street Journal and Fox News.

    None of these polls are conducted by these media organizations themselves. They’re conducted by reputable, independent polling firms. That’s why the polls for Fox News, for example, often produce results that don’t vary much from those in polls commissioned by CNN or other outfits. And as for NBC’s polls, they are jointly commissioned by The Wall Street Journal, which is owned by the same company that owns Fox News.

    Apparently, you don’t know much about polling, but then that isn’t surprising.

  11. Pat, the only polls that will matter this year are Exit Polls. No need to be insulting about it. What’s not to know about polling. One asks certain people, in certain area’s, certain questions and they get certain answers. It’s the same reason that you chose to use the one question, out of dozens, to make the headline for your narrative so that it somehow reinforces your (not the Polls) position that Obama as unbeatable. See, even a knuckle dragger like me can be enlightened every now and then:)

  12. bill: Your ignorance of the science of polling is astounding. Only a simpleton would think it’s all so simple. No respectable professional polling outfit sets out to obtain certain desirable results. If they did that, they would soon have no big-time clients and would be out of business. Polling is a complicated science. A good national poll takes a lot of effort and costs a lot of money. The big media — that is, the networks and the major newspapers and magazines — hire reputable firms to conduct their polls. Those media may play up or play down the poll results they get to suit their political agendas. But they don’t involve themselves in cooking the numbers or fudging the methods. That’s just the way it is.

    And your theory that the only polls that will matter this year are the exit polls is naive in the extreme. Both political parties and the campaign organizations for every major candidate will pay a lot of attention to the polls. And they’ll spend lots of money to commission their own polls. Polling is as much or more a part of modern politics as phone banks, leaflets, stump speeches and TV commercials. Professional political scientists know this to be a fact, even if you don’t understand it.

  13. leftcoast

    oh yeah, bill…..”jive master” is not racist..I am sure you referred to bad actor reagan, big bush, clinton, lil AWOL bush using the term “jive master”…just a coincidence you bring out that term about a black president…

    you are being duped by the money men into supporting tax cuts for millionaires because they throw you red meat of guns, gays and god while lining their pockets with your tax dollars–your guys do not reduce the deficit–they increase deficits while rewarding the Koch brothers and other richies at your expense but your prejudices and paranoias are being exploited so you help them with their reverse robin hood policies….

    the irony is that you or your parents are on medicare and social security which they want to eliminate so you will have to continue to buy your insurance through the crooked insurance companies that make billions in profits and you are against Obamacare…

    you all rail about personal responsibility while wanting to eliminate the personal responsibility to cover one’s own medical costs by being insured…are you even aware, because of the insurance monopoly we who have private insurance are paying over $1000 a year to cover those that don’t have it…and mandated insurance would change that and make all pay…

  14. Pat, thnx for the in-depth analysis of the wonderful world of statistical data, it’s still just as boring as it was in college. Wow…Leftcoast. Talk about paranoia and delusion. What’s the matter out there? I’m guessing you don’t have to look far to see big government at its worst. No worry, Kim Kardashian is reportedly going to run for Mayor of Glendale soon enough. Just what the left coast needs…another TV reality star that thinks they have a connection to….real people. You think I’m a racist because I applied a real definition to the behavior of Barack Hussein Obama? Ooops, now you’ll call me a Muslimphobe. He’s done nothing but tease, kidd and exaggerate his entire political career. Just look at him, all he does is laugh with contempt most of the time. That’s when he’s not scowling those who oppose him. Hey, get this too, Bush hasn’t been in office for THREE years. While I know that makes you warm and fuzzy you’re really running on empty with the blame game. But as Obama is an incompetent leader, the best he can do is to deflect responsibility and accountability. But I do recall him saying…”no excuses”. More Jiving I guess. And wow…you called him black…isn’t that a tad insensitive to his ethnic background of being an African…American? If any African American has a more direct line to Africa it’s him (through his abusive, womanizing African Dad). That, too, is a fact. And for the record my parents are passed and I made responsible decisions to help me obtain health insurance. And ghee, how did you ever guess I’m against a 2700 page document that was passed by crooked Democrats (some of which had to come kicking and screaming to support it) in the dark of night. A document that most in Congress still have not read. A document that obviously isn’t strong enough to stand on its merit because of its potential of being unconstitutional. Hey Pat, where’s the Poll data that shows over half of the American people want it repealed and the data that reflects that over half of the states in this country have filed law suits against Obama? How about making that Poll your next topic.

  15. bill: Regarding the last two sentences of your rambling, incoherent comment:

    A Republican pollster recently noted that most Americans do NOT want the health-care law completely rejected by the Supreme Court or entirely repealed by Congress.

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