Gallup: By a margin of 56 percent to 36 percent, Americans expect Obama to be re-elected

Even one in every four Republicans expects Barack Obama to win a second term, as we see on the chart above.

The story is HERE:

The poll was conducted at a time when U.S. registered voters are evenly divided in their vote preferences. Gallup’s latest Daily tracking update, based on May 8-14 interviewing, shows 46% of voters preferring Obama and 45% Romney.

It is unclear why Americans are more inclined to predict an Obama than a Romney victory when the two are essentially tied in Gallup’s latest election polling. It may be that Americans recognize the advantages Obama has as the incumbent and that historically, presidents seeking re-election usually win. For example, in March 2004, when President George W. Bush and John Kerry were about tied in voter preferences, more said Bush (52%) than Kerry (42%) would win. Or, Americans may expect in the months between now and the election that conditions in the U.S. will improve, which would make the incumbent’s re-election more certain.

Americans are a bit more likely now to say Obama has a better chance of winning than they were at a similar point in 2008. A June 2008 Gallup poll found 52% predicting Obama would win, while 41% thought Republican John McCain would.




  1. Neftali

    Its still sort of early to get solid numbers on Obama v. Romney. But the polls are trending in Romney’s direction.

    For example, the latest CBS/NY Times poll has Romney over Obama, 46-43.


  2. Neftali

    That same CBS/NY TImes poll shows that women are now favoring Romney over Obama.


    So that whole charade from the Democrats claiming the Republicans are “waging a war on women” is turning out to be a complete disaster.

  3. Neftali

    Oh…and what’s this?

    A USA Today/Gallup poll shows voters more optimistic about economy under Romney than Obama.

    “In the poll, 55% say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney was elected, compared with 46% who say it would improve if Obama was re-elected. Twenty-seven percent say the economy would get worse in a Romney first term, compared with 37% who say that of an Obama second term.”


  4. The Washington Examiner? Where did they conduct their poll at the local country club?

  5. Neftali: Let me know when you want to wager coin of the realm on Romney getting more votes than Obama from women.

  6. Neftali

    Steverino – Like i said – The washington examiner article was about the CBS/NY times poll.

  7. ApostasyUSA

    Please… Republicans are the biggest fakes the world has ever known. Republicans don’t really care about spending. Republicans only care about money that we spend on education and healthcare (things that actually improve society)…..but spending three trillion dollars we borrow from China on unnecessary war in Iraq…..Halliburton and Karl Marx approved!!

    4500 dead Americans and 100,000 innocent Iraqi civilians’ deaths later and now Republicans care about “life”? I think not…..

    They might be able to rouse the bigots and some religious zealots telling others who they can’t marry but the Republican policies of lowering taxes and deregulating have unequivocally failed all but maybe 5% of Americans.

    I think it was P.G. O’Rourke who said it best, “Republicans are the party that says government doesn’t work, and then get elected and prove it.”

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