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Considering Walker’s huge advantage in out-of-state money, why is the election likely to be close?

By all accounts, Scott Walker and his Republican chums have raised and spent far more money (most of it from out of state) than their rivals in the run-up to today’s recall election.

So why isn’t Walker way, way ahead in the pre-election polls?

Money isn’t everything in politics, but neither is it a negligible factor. As former Sen. Phil Gramm once put it, money is “the mother’s milk of politics.”

Most of that political mother’s milk goes to buy TV campaign spots. And in Wisconsin, there have been far more such spots favoring Scott Walker than opposing him.

So again, why is this recall election expected to be close?

I’m guessing that Walker will win — but not by nearly as much as the campaign spending on his behalf would suggest.

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14 Comments

  1. Neftali

    Are you kidding? Scott Walker’s approval rating was almost below 40% about 12 months ago. He was finished. Kaput.

    The mainsteam media was more than gracious to depict Walker as some ruthless dictator while the champions of labor braved the cold to fight for their rights. One union leader even said Walker was turning “public employees into a worse enemy than Osama bin Laden.”

    With allegedly a million signatures rounded up a scant few months ago, its actually amazing that the recall polling numbers are even close. The fact that Scott Walker has a very good chance of winning this thing is nothing short of amazing. The amount of money devoted to the grassroots campaigns to sway public opinion so quickly, and against such great odds, speaks volumes to successful efforts of the Walker administration and his supporters.

  2. Please define ‘close’. If by close you mean under 5% difference then it’s time to look at the sources you gain information from. They have not been honest with you.

  3. Lindsay

    Do you really think that the Wisconsin voters wish to have Walker’s corruption in office?

    http://wqow.com/story/18701007/dems-try-to-seize-wis-senate-in-recall-undercard

  4. Truth About Energy

    If Walker maintains this lead, he will win by a greater margin than Reagan did in 1984. Walker is winning all but 7 counties, including Milwaukee. Here is the county map http://www.jsonline.com/

  5. wilson

    To Pat”the prevaricator” 15 % is close, he reminds me of Monty Python character the Black Knight from the Holy Grail.

  6. Truth About Energy

    1984: 54-45%
    2012: 53-46%

    1984: 62 counties
    2012: 60 counties

    turnout: near Presidential

  7. Neftali

    These leftists really need to chill out…

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/06/woman-slaps-tom-barrett_n_1572814.html

    I mean, is it really so bad? They still have the ability to collectively bargain over their salaries. But now the school districts have the ability to shop around for health insurances providers instead of being forced to use the union-mandated firms. The fact the union membership is falling by the tens of thousands shows that a lot of people didn’t like the mandated dues in the first place and prefer freedom of choice.

  8. Luke Fredrickson

    The Koch fascists will not stop until they destroy all public unions and return our nation to the late 1800s – no worker protections, no middle class, with pluted bloatocrats doling out crumbs to the serfs. And they will claim Jesus is on their side. Wait til small businesses realize they have no more customers left to afford their wares.

  9. Walker wins by more than double he beat Barrett in 2010. All that union money from across the US didn’t even help him! (nor did Obama as he flew over the state twice from MN to Chicago ignoring Barrett). The Dems have a real mess on their hands. Time for the democrat circular firing squad!!!!

  10. expdoc

    Check back in a year Luke. Small business is going to boom in Wisconsin now that the recall is settled. By the way, you’re not the hysterical liberal interviewed on CNN last night are you?

  11. Neftali

    Luke – Get real. No one is talking about reducing worker protections. Most of that stuff is backed by Federal laws and has nothing to do with unions ran by county governments.

    Again – let’s examine what really happened:

    1 – No more forcing people to pay union dues. People now pay by their own free will.

    2 – Local governments are now allowed to shop for health insurance instead of the mandated ones backed by the unions.

    3 – Property taxes have decreased in Wisconsin.

    4 – Employees can still collectively bargain over salaries.

    5 – People still contribute to their pension plans, and even their pension contributions are relatively minor, about 7%. People in the private sector pay close to 20% for similar plans. I personally would love to pay 20% of my salary for a comparable pension plan.

    6 – Local county governments across the state can now continue to provide essential services without having to layoff public workers and shutdown libraries, postpone road repairs, etc.

    Now – What in the world is so bad with any of that stuff which makes you to allege the ridiculous analogies you just made?

  12. Lindsay

    The sky may not be falling as badly as Luke claims; however, this Fall of 2012 will have a Republican-sponsored ballot measure to change California’s State Constitution. The exact wording is being finalized in the Attorney General’s office currently.

    The proposed Constitutional Amendment only favors wealthy individuals – a billionaire amendment – so to speak. The proposal bans super-duper PACs and Unions from political campaigning – so individuals can not associate to work for thier common interests.

    Interestingly, this Republican concept will leave only the monied INDIVIDUAL interests of the Citizens United Supreme Court decision to run roughshod over elections in the State. This is while falsely claiming to throttle all “special interests”.

    Right now, Luke and I and the billionaire only have only one vote apiece – one vote per individual. Of these three individuals, only the billionaire can run a 15 million dollar campaign as an individual – as the proposal against the freedom of associating in Unions or PACs intends.

    Should the existing monied-individuals have such an overwhelming voting advantage given to them?

    http://forbes.com/sites/clareoconnor/2012/06/05/gov-scott-walkers-big-money-backers-include-13-out-of-state-billionaires

  13. expdoc

    Democrats can’t have it both ways Lindsay. They whine about individuals with money, they whine about groups with money, they whine when they don’t win.

    Given your post, I am sure you were happy with Governor Walker’s plan to make union dues optional for public employees thereby giving people maximal choice to the individual and decreasing one of the primary sources of “big money” in politics.

    No amount of money should be able to sway a voter who is willing to read about the candidates and their issues. We still all get one vote.

  14. Lindsay

    You are right, expdoc, why do we even have any Constitutional Rights at all?

    http://google.com/search?q=Constitution+%22Freedom+of+Association%22

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