Post-mortems on the Wisconsin recall election

A few random thoughts on this morning after Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker survived a recall election:

–Walker’s seven-percentage-point margin of victory matched my prediction of yesterday afternoon that he would win, “but not by nearly as much as the campaign spending on his behalf would suggest.” (See the pie charts above.)

–I take heart in the exit polls showing that most Wisconsin voters share my negative view of recall elections in general (most recently expressed HERE).

Sixty percent of Wisconsin voters said that recall elections were only appropriate for official misconduct, while 27 percent said “any reason,” and another 10 percent said “never.” In other words, only one in four voters thought yesterday’s recall election was justified.

–Walker seems to have benefitted from the election having been held in June, after most college students had returned home for the summer. The turnout of young voters yesterday was more than 240,000 lower than in the general election of 2008. Walker’s margin of victory yesterday was about 172,000 votes.

–Exit polls showed that President Obama enjoys a lead of six percentage points over Mitt Romney among Wisconsin voters. And that’s without all those aforementioned college students.

Indeed, one of every six Walker voters said they prefer Obama over Romney.






  1. Neftali

    Since the Democrats know they can’t argue against the positive results of Walker’s agenda, their only play is complain about the fund raising. And even then….

    A) According to the above chart Wisconsin donors still contributed $10.37M to Walker compared to $2.886M for Barrett. So did outside donors really make that much of an impact?

    B) You have to question why the SEIU and other major organizations didn’t contribute to the effort. They could have easily have matched the outside donor contribution rates. You can’t blame Walker for your own failure to generate revenue and support for your cause.

    C) Barrett has now lost the race for governor 3 times. You have to wonder if the Wisconsin Dems really want to invest in his services in 2014.

  2. WI voters have spoken. If it is because they were uninformed and only listened to TV ads, it is their own fault for not getting the correct information. It was out there. It they were informed, then all the better. In the end, they had a choice. It is their responsibility to get educated on the issues. They now have to live with the consequences.

  3. expdoc

    Wisconsin voters have spoken, you are correct Jerry. The majority will be happy to live with the consequences. In fact, they are the consequences they asked for when they voted for Walker the first time in 2010.

    The only people who could have possibly been uneducated about this election and its ramifications are those who were picked up and shuffled of the polls to register and vote the same day. Otherwise, there was a plethora of information available to help inform the voters.

  4. So, Pat this is now about Obozo V. Romney?? Well, I guess you’re right and that this is ANOTHER referendum against Obozo. And ghee, what was Obozo doing today, June 6th, the anniversary of D-Day…campaigning for funds! And not a peep, not one peep from the jive master about America being the leader of the free world, the free world that liberated Europe. How America takes the lead in confronting despots (at least it used to and no “condemnations” don’t count). No, instead it’s all about the money isn’t it. The same money you and your ilk report to be sooo adamantly opposed to. You know the type..millionaires…as in Hollywood ones. Again, it’s always someones elses fault isn’t it??? Jerk.

  5. Neftali

    Bill – “the jive master?” Really? Racist much?

    Obama was at Normandy 2 years ago to mark the 65th anniversary of the occasion. Here is the full text of the speech, its actually really good. The story of Jim Norene is particularly moving.


    So there is no doubt in my mind he well aware of yesterday’s occasion, and paid his own respects. That said, his staff did make an error by at least not writing up a quick public statement commemorating the occasion. It would have just took 5 minutes.

  6. Neftali, we’ve had this discussion prior. Look up “Jive” in the dictionary and then tell me it doesn’t fit Obama. Nothing racist about it other than the propensity of liberals to look at everyone through some sort of steorotypical lens. And as a matter of course it’s the common reply from liberals when someone opposes them, or as in this case Barack Husein Obama. You guys need to expand your vocabulary beyond “racists, phobes, Tea Baggers, extremists” and the like. It’s really predictable and really….boring. Yes, his staff made the error…that’s right. Why should we expect Obama himself to remember such an occasion and take 5 minutes to chuck something out there? But, boy I’m sure he remembered where he was going, whom he was visiting and how much money he expected to take in. Where’s patriotic Joe when you need em? BTW-I didn’t notice until now that the above “data” was a Boy Rachael’s product. Really says it all.

  7. Poor bill! Most of the voters in the Wisconsin recall election — including 17 percent of those who voted for Scott Walker — said they prefer Obama to Mitt Romney. But bill sees the results as a “referendum against obozo.”

    But then, bill is also a global-warming denier. In fact, he embraces just about every crackpot wingnut theory that comes down the pike.

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