Post-mortems on the Wisconsin recall election
A few random thoughts on this morning after Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker survived a recall election:
–Walker’s seven-percentage-point margin of victory matched my prediction of yesterday afternoon that he would win, “but not by nearly as much as the campaign spending on his behalf would suggest.” (See the pie charts above.)
–I take heart in the exit polls showing that most Wisconsin voters share my negative view of recall elections in general (most recently expressed HERE).
Sixty percent of Wisconsin voters said that recall elections were only appropriate for official misconduct, while 27 percent said “any reason,” and another 10 percent said “never.” In other words, only one in four voters thought yesterday’s recall election was justified.
–Walker seems to have benefitted from the election having been held in June, after most college students had returned home for the summer. The turnout of young voters yesterday was more than 240,000 lower than in the general election of 2008. Walker’s margin of victory yesterday was about 172,000 votes.
–Exit polls showed that President Obama enjoys a lead of six percentage points over Mitt Romney among Wisconsin voters. And that’s without all those aforementioned college students.
Indeed, one of every six Walker voters said they prefer Obama over Romney.