Uptick in unemployment rate in July, but stock market reacts positively to more new jobs than expected

The bad news and the good news are summarized HERE:

The U.S. economy closed out an otherwise weak second quarter by creating more jobs than expected, with 163,000 new positions added, but the unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent.

Markets reacted positively to the announcement, with stock futures indicating gains at the Wall Street open. Economists had been expecting 100,000 new jobs.

The chart above offers a convenient glance at the jobs picture over the past four and a half years.



  1. Here is the real news on jobs and it remains terrible.


    The government’s most widely publicized unemployment rate measures only those who are out of a job and currently looking for work. It does not count discouraged potential employees who have quit looking, nor those who are underemployed — wanting to work full-time but forced to work part-time.

    For that count, the government releases a separate number called the “U-6,” which provides a more complete tally of how many people really are out of work.

    The numbers in some cases are startling.

    Consider: Nevada’s U-6 rate is 22.1 percent, up from just 7.6 percent in 2007. Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate, while Rhode Island is at 18.3 percent, more than double its 8.3 percent rate in 2007.

    Those numbers compare especially unfavorably to the national rate, high in itself at 14.9 percent though off its record peak of 17.2 percent in October 2009.

    Only three states — Nebraska (9.1 percent), South Dakota (8.6 percent) and North Dakota (6.1 percent) — have U-6 rates under 10 percent, according to research from RBC Capital Markets.

  2. Republicans hate good news.

  3. Good news?

    You must have a full time job Stevo.

    Liberals are so uncaring.

  4. U-6 under GWB was at 8 to 10% , which was also twice the unemployment rate. When GWB left office, unemployment was 7.8%, and U-6 was 14%. So in both cases U-6 was twice the unemployment rate, about the same as it is now.

    And in case you don’t remember, the unemployment numbers under GWB were considered high at the time.

  5. Truth About Energy

    Pulled this from the Wall Street Journal

    “Every candidate since 1964 with the lead in Gallup polls about 100 days before the presidential election won the Oval Office except for Michael Dukakis. So what do the polls tell us now?” Obama has a slight lead http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

  6. Twist and turn those figures anyway you like the bottom line is that we have had 29 straight months of job growth despite the GOP’s obstructionist agenda to make the President look bad at every turn. If there’s a piece of legislation that provides benefits for all Americans the Rebaggers will vote it down while kissing the ring of Pope Norquist, after all they were elected to tackle the big issues like birtherism and contraception.

  7. Well then ! With such a stellar record on job growth clearly the President has nothing to worry about.

    Just one question? How do you know it isn’t the GOP obstructionism that has caused the growth?

    What if the government did even less? Would the job growth be even better?

  8. Truth About Energy

    Taking this from someone else

    “Hey Jeff Write this on the blog because the number were minipulated. Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US “added” 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an “adjusted” rise? Simple: the BLS “added” 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there’s more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs “added”, 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn’t matter – the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.”

    20,000 fewer were created in June, by the way.

    If Romney actually fights back, he could win this. Truman did in 1948, Kennedy did in 1960, and Gore (won the popular vote and came within 500 votes) in 2000. At this point, a very close Obama victory should be expected. Bush was reelected, after all. But it was so close that it might have been different had more Democrats turned out in Ohio using the unspent $15 million.

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