If you’re serious about trying to handicap the upcoming presidential election, the one thing you don’t want to do is base your prediction on the sentiments of people in your social or occupational circles.
Most of us don’t have a sufficiently diverse collection of acquaintances to warrant a measurement of their opinions as an indication of any political trends. Just because almost everyone you know is going to vote a certain way doesn’t mean that most Americans will follow suit.
Better that you should consult THESE WEB SITES, where all sorts of information is processed to arrive at indications that might not otherwise occur to you.
Imagine how impressed your friends will be when you say something like this: “Well, I’m voting for so-and-so, but I doubt that he’ll win — and here’s why.”
Another good one:
http://election.princeton.edu/