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Polls show only a modest, and perhaps short-lived, bounce for Romney after GOP convention

His party’s quadrennial convention this past week seems not to have given Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney much of an upward bounce in the polls. 

One of the problems for Romney is that TV ratings for the convention were less than stellar, as Nate Silver noted HERE:

Ratings for the final two nights of the Republican convention were down quite a bit from 2008, declining by about 30 percent overall. 

The ratings decline should not really be a surprise. Whereas, in 2008, Senator John McCain announced his running mate, Sarah Palin, just a few days before the convention, making her a national sensation, Mitt Romney rolled out his choice of Representative Paul D. Ryan three weeks ago, perhaps limiting the buildup to Tampa, Fla.

The convention was also shortened by, and had to compete with, Hurricane Isaac. And the security in and around Tampa was airtight, limiting protests and distractions — but perhaps also the spontaneity and newsworthiness of the event.

More important, this election has simply not generated the same excitement from viewers and voters than 2008 did. It would be quite surprising to me if the Democratic convention did not also experience a significant decline in its television ratings.

In a subsequent post, Silver had THIS to say:

The Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla. received mediocre television ratings — and the polling data so far suggests that it may produce only a modest bounce in the polls for Mitt Romney.

 

The most favorable number for Mr. Romney is from the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll. That survey showed him pulling into a 3-point lead against President Obama on Saturday. All of the interviews in the Rasmussen poll were conducted after the convention began, although only about one-third were conducted after Mr. Romney’s acceptance speech on Thursday night.

The Rasmussen poll represents a 5-point swing toward Mr. Romney from the polling firm’s final survey before the conventions, when it had Mr. Obama ahead by two points. But it does not read quite as strongly for him as compared to the long-term average of Rasmussen polls, which have had Mr. Romney ahead by about one percentage point on average over the past 60 days.

Another survey, an online tracking poll conducted by the polling firm Ipsos, had previously shown a decent-sized bounce for Mr. Romney — but it has since receded some. In the version of the poll that Ipsos released on Saturday, Mr. Obama led by one percentage point, 44-43, among likely voters. That’s a better result for Mr. Romney than the survey the firm conducted prior to the conventions, when Mr. Romney had trailed by four points. But it reflects a reversal from Thursday, when Mr. Romney was up by two points in the poll.

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