Obama does better in polls that include cellphones
Do you have a landline phone in your home?
I don’t, and neither do one-third of American households.
That means that I and millions of my fellow citizens have no chance — none, zip, zero, nada – of being called by political pollsters who measure only the sentiments of folks with landline phones.
And since us cellphone-only people generally tend to favor Democrats, it also means that some polls underestimate support for President Obama’s re-election.
Nate Silver has the STORY:
Barack Obama seems to have received a much clearer bounce in some types of polls than others.
Although there are exceptions on either side, like the Gallup national tracking poll, for the most part Mr. Obama seems to be getting stronger results in polls that use live interviewers and that include cellphones in their samples — enough to suggest that he has a clear advantage in the race.
In the polls that use an automated dialing method (“robopolls”) or which exclude cellphones, Mr. Obama’s bounce has been much harder to discern, and the race looks considerably closer.
The difference seems especially pronounced at the state level. Mr. Obama got very strong results in a series of NBC News/Marist College polls last week in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, which included cellphones and used live interviewers. Likewise, Tuesday morning’s series of New York Times/CBS News/Quinnipiac polls had reasonably good news for Mr. Obama in Virginia and Wisconsin.
By contrast, the automated polling firm Rasmussen Reports has recently released polls showing Mr. Obama two points behind Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and three points behind in Colorado — the worst results that it has shown for him in those states all year. Another automated polling firm, Gravis Marketing, recently put Mr. Obama at a five-point deficit in Virginia, in contrast to three traditional polls that put him ahead by margins ranging from four to eight points there. A third automated polling firm, Public Policy Polling, has shown stronger results for Mr. Obama, but they also had him with good results before the conventions, and so haven’t shown him gaining much ground.