Cheer up, Republicans! Here’s a poll that shows Romney with a big lead over Obama!
The right-wing blogosphere suddenly is gleeful over what it sees as solid evidence that Mitt Romney actually has a lead of nearly eight percentage points over that Muslim usurper the Democrats are running for re-election as president.
This conclusion is based on the theory that the polls conducted by the likes of Gallup — and even the polls commissioned by Fox News, no less – are hopelessly skewed by an oversampling of Democrats.
If you unskew all those establishment polls, the theory goes, you find that the foreign-born terrorist-lover in the White House is losing the race.
The story is HERE:
Some Romney supporters have long complained that public polls suggest higher Democratic turnout, and lower Republican turnout, than they think is likely this year. Pollsters have replied that their samples are dictated by what poll respondents themselves say…
Dean Chambers, a blogger on Examiner.com who writes from his home in Duffield, Virginia, took that complaint a step further — producing wide Romney leads far beyond what the Republican’s campaign or Republican pollsters have suggested is the case.
He created the site unskewedpolls.com, retooling national polling data this July after reading an ABC News/Washington Post poll that “just didn’t look right.” Looking at the internal data, Chambers saw that the polling unit had sampled more Democrats than Republicans.
Since July, Chambers has re-weighted national polling data from organizations like Gallup, ARG, and the three networks, to fit the Rasmussen Reports partisan trends. Chambers has published 30 “unskewed” polls on his website and on examiner.com, a national network that pays independent bloggers on a wide range of subject by traffic. In the last month, Chambers’s tooled polls have Romney up by seven or more points.
Rasmussen’s most recent partisan breakdown shows that 37.6 percent of Americans consider themselves Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats, and 29.2 percent Independents.
But while Chambers’ methods may appeal to conservatives, other pollsters say their samples reflect reality — not wishful thinking — and that the higher Democratic numbers are similar to those in the most recent presidential election.
Even the founder of Rasmussen Reports, whose surveys often show higher Republican numbers, cast doubt on Chambers’ methods: Scott Rasmussen told BuzzFeed in an e-mail that “you cannot compare partisan weighting from one polling firm to another.”
Meanwhile, THIS GUY takes a skeptical view of the so-called unskewed polls:
Rasmussen’s party ID makeup does not remotely resemble any other organization’s party ID makeup. Every other organization finds that more Americans identify as Democrats or independents than Republicans, and that has been the case for years, even as Democratic Party affiliation has fallen. (Even in horrible years for Democrats, Gallup and Pew find more people identifying as Democrat than Republican.) “Correcting” polls to reflect Rasmussen’s outlier party ID finding basically means predicting Romney will win by a wider margin than any candidate from either party since 1988, which is … unlikely!