Looks like the SMART MONEY is going with the incumbent:
Whether they like him or not, a number of Wall Street analysts are publicly predicting that President Obama is likely to be re-elected.
They’re not idle predictions, either. Party strategists and reporters aren’t the only ones who get paid to evaluate the presidential landscape — firms routinely hire analysts or “political intelligence” firms to predict election outcomes or, more importantly, game out legislative scenarios on Capitol Hill. While partisans may have the luxury of optimism as to whether their candidate might prevail, investors need to keep a clear head if they want to predict whether the health care companies will be transformed by Romney repealing Obamacare or the defense industry pinched by the upcoming sequester.
Thomas Block, an independent analyst who previously served as government policy strategist for JP Morgan Chase, told TPM that he’s been advising clients as of mid-September that Romney is in bad shape.
“I think the immigration issue is hurting Romney in Florida, I think his auto position is hurting him in Ohio,” he said, citing recent survey data. “Obama leading in a FOX News poll can’t be good for Romney.”