Introducing our Daily Poll Watch
Election Day is four weeks from tomorrow, which means that polls on the presidential race (and, to a lesser degree, on U.S. House and Senate races) increasingly will be closely watched by political junkies of all stripes.
Accordingly, we are introducing here a Daily Poll Watch, wherein we will pass along the results of surveys that catch our eye — even if the numbers don’t always satisfy our liberal partisanship. But relatively little attention will be paid to polls known for dubious methodology. Rasmussen polls, for example, will get scant mention, mainly because they are conducted by means of robo-calls and don’t include cell phones, which means they miss a significant number of potential voters.
Our first entry comes from Gallup, where a three-day rolling average shows President Obama’s job-approval rating up three points at 51 percent, while a seven-day rolling average puts the president five points ahead of Mitt Romney in the presidential race.
The story is HERE.
And then in THIS PIECE, Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium compares the boost Romney got from his debate performance last week with the one he got from naming Paul Ryan as his running mate:
[T]he post-debate bounce is looking a lot like the post-Ryan-VP bounce. It is about 3.0% in size, closing half the gap between Romney and Obama. As debate-induced changes go, this is exceptionally large. However, it is showing signs that it has peaked…It is starting to level off now…
Two bits of evidence suggest that Romney’s post-debate gains have come from inspiring partisan voters, as opposed to flipping nonpartisans. First, according to a recent PPP poll in Wisconsin, gains have come in the form of an increased enthusiasm among Republican voters – but not among independents. Second, the Rand survey, which tracks individual sentiment, does not show a massive wave of one-way mind-changing, which is what occurred [to Obama's benefit] after the Democratic convention.