Daily Poll Watch: Mainstream media loudly trumpet Pew poll showing Romney ahead of Obama!


The funny thing about the latest Pew poll (HERE) is the reaction to it in both the mainstream media and the right-wing blogosphere.

Mitt Romney’s four-point lead over President Obama  in the Pew survey — 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters —  is barely outside the poll’s stated margin of error. Among registered voters in general, the race is even at 46 percent. In other words, a contest that’s been fairly close for months now is still fairly close, if not a dead heat.

But the MSM, ever eager to refute any notions of liberal bias, are touting the Pew survey as a stunning surge for Romney. All three TV network morning shows today trumpeted the numbers Moreover, the conservative media — especially right-wing Web sites — suddenly have abandoned the familiar meme that polls are not to be trusted. (I guess the only untrustworthy polls are the ones that don’t show Romney ahead.)

Meanwhile, the latest seven-day average in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll has Obama ahead by three points among registered voters, 49-46, as we see here:

Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones SUMS IT UP thusly:

The first presidential debate went decidedly in Romney’s favor. The debate appears to have affected voters to some degree, given the narrowing of the race in the three days after the debate compared with the three days prior. Still, the impact was not so strong that it changed the race to the point where Romney emerged as the leader among registered voters. Rather, at least in the first three days of Gallup tracking after the debate, the race is tied.

But even that small movement is significant, given the competitiveness of the race throughout this presidential campaign year and the fact that debates rarely transform presidential election races.

However, the generally positive unemployment report released on Friday may serve to blunt some of Romney’s post-debate momentum.

In any case, with a month to go before Election Day, the outcome of the 2012 presidential election is still very much in doubt. That certainly raises the stakes for both candidates in the next two debates, Oct. 16 in Hempstead, N.Y., and Oct. 22 in Boca Raton, Fla.

UPDATE: Nate Silver, the nation’s pre-eminent polling analyst, now puts Romney’s chances of winning in the Electoral College at about one-in-four.

In a post-midnight piece early today, Silver had THIS to say:

Mitt Romney gained further ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Monday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 25.2 percent from 21.6 percent on Sunday.

The change represents a continuation of the recent trend: Mr. Romney’s chances were down to just 13.9 percent immediately in advance of last week’s debate in Denver. He has nearly doubled his chances since then.

But the gains that he made on Monday in particular were all because of a single poll…a Pew Research poll  that gave Mr. Romney a 4-point lead among likely voters…

The most unfavorable numbers for Mr. Romney came in the national tracking polls published by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports. Both showed the race trending slightly toward President Obama, who increased his lead from 3 points to 5 points in the Gallup poll, and pulled into a tie after having trailed by 2 points in the Rasmussen survey.

UPDATE II: Gallup released new figures at Noon (CDT), and they show Obama’s job-approval rating (53 percent) 11 points higher than his disapproval rating (42 percent).

In the presidential contest, the rolling seven-day average shows a neck-and-neck race. Obama leads Romney by three points among registered voters (49-46), and Romney leads by two points among likely voters (49-47).

UPDATE III: A new CNN poll released this afternoon SHOWS Obama leading Romney in Ohio by four points among likely voters (51-47) and 10 points among registered voters (53-43).



  1. Neftali

    “Mitt Romney has overtaken President Obama in a Public Policy Polling survey released on Tuesday.

    Romney won 49 percent support from likely voters in the poll, compared to 47 percent for Obama.

    It’s the first time all year Romney has led in the poll, which was conducted on behalf of the liberal Daily Kos website and the Service Employees International Union. Obama led 49-45 percent in the group’s previous poll, conducted before last week’s debate. ”


  2. Neftali: Regarding that PPP poll, it seems to have missed most of the effect of Friday’s jobless report. Seventy-five percent of the sample was gathered on Thursday and Friday, at the height of Romney’s post-debate bounce. Forty-seven percent of responses were on Thursday, 28 percent on Friday, 17 percent on Saturday, and just 8 percent on Sunday. Romney won Thursday 49-48 and Friday 49-44 before losing steam over the weekend.

  3. Neftali

    Excuses, excuses. You sound like the Republicans from 2 weeks ago who were saying all the polls were biased.

  4. Neftali: Get a grip! I’m not saying the PPP poll is biased. I’m merely explaining to you a few of the fine points you seem to have missed.

    The simple fact of the matter is that Romney’s surge in the PPP poll began to fade a bit over the weekend — due, no doubt, to the jobless figures.

    Let me know if you ever learn how to read polls.

  5. Publican

    The latest unemployment report was contaminated, according to a Gallup economist http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/08/gallup-economist-fridays-job-numbers-should-be-discounted/ Anyone who believes that report is an idiot. The 53% who approve of the job that he is doing are the Kerry-Edwards voters, plus the idiots who voted for him the last time around. They sure will learn when unemployment falls out next January and February. I bet that they will feel smart, again. #WhiteGuilt

  6. Luke Fredrickson

    Tha Gallup guy didn’t say it was contaminated, Publican. You are trying to imply some sort of fraud, based on absolutely zero evidence. Anyone who believes your crap is an idiot.

    What he DID say is that it was a “surprisingly large” increase. This should be great news to anyone who loves America, yet still you wish for worse. #WhineyIdiot

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