Daily Poll Watch: Flurry of new data shows tight race nationally and in battleground states

Let’s start with a new poll from Fox News, which SHOWS Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama nationally by one percentage point among likely voters (46-45), which is well within the poll’s stated margin of error of three points.

The Fox poll also shows likely voters evenly divided on the question of whether the nation’s job situation is getting better or worse.

As for the battleground states, this chart from The Huffington Post is pretty handy (despite the misspelling of Wisconsin):

HuffPo also offers THESE NOTES:

In Ohio, arguably the most crucial of the battleground states, Marist’s poll gave Obama a six percentage point lead (51 to 45 percent). That is slightly better than a CNN/ORC International survey conducted earlier in the week that showed Obama leading by four and significantly better than a series of automated polls showing one-point margins favoring either candidate…

Both Marist and Quinnipiac reported results for Virginia, but they differed on the candidates’ standings. Quinnipiac gives Obama a five percentage point lead (51 to 46 percent), while Marist finds a one-point edge for Romney (48 to 47 percent). Three recent automated, recorded voice polls tended to agree more with the Marist result, showing findings ranging from a three-point Romney lead to a three-point deficit… In Florida, the Marist poll gives Obama a one-point edge (48 to 47 percent). Once again, that result falls in the middle of a range of results reported by other polls this week, although automated polls by Rasmussen Reports and We Ask America gave Romney a narrow edge…

In Colorado, the Quinnipiac survey gives Romney a one point edge (48 to 47 percent). Once again, the new result falls in the middle of three other recent Colorado surveys ranging from a four-point Obama lead to a four-point deficit…

The numbers have been better for Obama in Wisconsin, where the new Quinnipiac survey gives him a three-point advantage (50 to 47 percent), a point better than the two-point Obama leads on two recent automated polls by Rasmussen Reports and the Democratic party affiliated firm Public Policy Polling (PPP). 

(NOTE: I’ll probably have updates on polling news as the day goes on. So check back from time to time.)

UPDATE: Uh-oh! Polling analyst Nate Silver said THIS a few hours ago:

[I]n an election held today, Mr. Obama would be favored to win the Electoral College but would probably lose (or at best roughly tie) the popular vote.

Such a result would be the second time in 12 years that the presidency was won by the candidate with a smaller portion of the popular vote. You’ll recall that in 2000, George W. Bush won in the Electoral College but lost the popular vote to Al Gore by more than 500,000 votes.




  1. That Silver comment is interesting. But he’s forgetting about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Its the law in Maryland, New Jersey, Illinois, Hawaii, Washington, Massachusetts, D.C., Vermont, and California.


    That means if Romney wins the popular vote, each of those blue states are committed to cast their delegates for Romney, resulting in a landslide Republican victory.

    I saw a poll this morning that shows Romney gained 8 points in California. Now, while no one expects him to win the state outright, if he can get enough people to be part of the national popular vote, well…you get the idea.

  2. oops….I overlooked this line “The agreement is to go into effect only when the participating states that have joined the compact together have an absolute majority in the Electoral College”

    They don’t have a majority yet, so it doesn’t apply. So Obama can still win the electoral college while losing the popular vote.

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