There have no earthshaking new polls today, but that situation easily could change twice over the next week or so — first by Monday, as the effects of the vice presidential debate take hold, and again by next Friday, as the aftermath of the next Obama-Romney debate on Tuesday settles in.
Meanwhile, Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium says THIS:
The Electoral College contains a structural advantage that favors Obama at the moment…The most plausible paths for Romney…are OH or hitting the double: a NV-WI combination. All three of those states have totally post-debate polls, and they are all blue. It would take a pretty hard push to drive the Meta-Margin to the red side. Possible, but something big (in addition to current trends) would have to happen. Watch the major candidates’ travel schedules.
Wang’s piece includes this map:
Regarding the veep debate, Wang said THIS late last night:
Biden seems to have given Ryan a thrashing, cornering him on budget policy and besting him on social issues. Ryan came off as more knowledgeable on foreign policy than I was expecting. He appeared to basically agree with the Administration. Since the expectation on the right was that a buffoon (Biden) was up against a brilliant young Turk (Ryan), the outcome might be deflating.
I will make one prediction: whatever happens in the polls next will be assigned to the VP debate as a cause. Earlier today I pointed out that in key swing states, Romney’s bounce subsided rapidly – indeed, may have started doing so days ago. However, it takes days for polls to hit the news. In short, I expect the media to have a case of post hoc, propter hoc. If and when things turn around, could the rooster (Biden) be about to get credit for the sunrise?