The effects of tomorrow night’s presidential debate on the polls won’t likely become apparent until the end of the week, but as things stand now, President Obama holds a modest advantage in the so-called swing states.
Mark Blumenthal EXPLAINS:
A new national poll showing President Barack Obama with a slight edge over Republican nominee Mitt Romney may give Democrats some cheer Monday morning, but its results largely confirm what other surveys have reported over the last week: Voter preferences are very close nationwide, with Obama retaining a narrow but persistent edge in key electoral vote battleground states.
The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey shows Obama leading Romney among likely voters by a 49 to 46 percent margin that ABC said fell “within the survey’s margin of error” and the Post described as a “virtual dead heat.”
The Obama battleground edge may be due to a heavier volume of television advertising aired in those states. An analysis by George Washington University political scientiest John Sides shows the number of ads run by the Democrats has slightly outpaced those run by the Republicans since the party conventions, although The Huffington Post reported last week that spending by Romney and his allies has increased greatly in recent weeks.
The Post/ABC poll indicates another area of tactical advantage for the Democrats: In swing states, voters were more likely to say they had been personally contacted, “by phone in person or online asking for your support,” by the Obama campaign (37 percent), than they were to say that had been personally contacted by the Romney campaign (27 percent).
As the ABC News analysis points out, support for both candidates has remained relatively constant with neither candidate exceeding 50 percent, which suggests a “get out the vote election,” in which motivation and turnout may decide the winner.
Meanwhile, polling analyst Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium SAYS:
Today, President Obama’s November re-elect probability is 84% – still a Russian-roulette situation for the Democrats…
To a Democrat, that’s a six-shooter with one shell labeled “R-outcome.” To a Republican, it’s loaded with five shells labeled “D-outcome.”