Daily Poll Watch: Eagerly awaiting impact of second debate

There’s not much new to report today on the polling front and probably won’t be until week’s end when the number-crunchers gauge the impact of last night’s Obama-Romney debate.

There is, however, THIS WORTHY ESSAY from Mark Blumenthal of HuffPost Pollster:

Over the last two weeks, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney closed the gap on President Barack Obama in pre-election polls, but the sometimes inconsistent numbers have been confusing. Why do polls seem to be all over the place? And how could Romney be leading in some national polls while Obama holds an advantage in polling in the battleground states?

The inevitable variability in polling numbers is the source of much of the confusion. Collectively, the polls have been telling us that the race is very close and, as such, relatively small inconsistencies that we might otherwise ignore now loom large and help produce contradictory narratives.

Here are four things to remember to help make sense of it all:

–Polls are always “all over the place.” 

–The race is close enough that slight differences in numbers will appear to support very different narratives about the state of the race.

–According to the HuffPost Pollster estimates, there is very little difference between the candidates’ standings nationwide and in the battleground states.

–Any one poll may produce a very different “narrative” about where the race stands, both nationally and in the battleground states.


Read the whole thing to get detailed explanations of each of the points referenced above in bold type.


1 Comment

  1. Barring some interval catastrophe, it’s all about turnout.

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