Polls showing a close presidential race don’t mean one outcome isn’t more likely than the other
That headline above may strike you as nonsense — and it may well be just that — but it’s based on the fact that certain people who are most earnestly watching presidential poll numbers see one result as much more likely than the other.
It’s like watching a sporting event in which, though the lead has been changing hands within a narrow range, one side is considerably more likely to emerge as the winner, according to the so-called experts.
At least that’s my reading of the two charts above, both of which seem to belie the polls showing the race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as very close.
The chart at the top is from noted polling analyst Nate Silver. And the one below it is from the Intrade market, where bets are made on political predictions. Both charts are fresh this morning, and they both put Obama’s chances of getting re-elected at 65 percent.
Joshua Tucker has more on this stuff HERE.