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Hurricane fallout: Gallup has suspended polling indefinitely

HERE‘s the news from America’s biggest polling outfit:

Gallup has suspended polling for its daily tracking as of Monday night and will reassess on a day-to-day basis. The ultimate effect on the overall picture of polling between now and this weekend, including election polling, will depend on what happens as a result of the storm, about which we will have a better understanding of on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. 

 

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8 Comments

  1. Well, I guess we’re just going to have to chew on their last released tidbit for next several days. That being that Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

  2. Luke Fredrickson

    Wow, at 7:05 on my drive to work along the construction on North Main Street the lit construction sign – which normally says things like “Lane Closures Ahead” – blinked the following:

    ROMENY (sic)
    PROMOTE
    RAPE

    alternating with

    VOTE FOR
    GARY
    JOHNSON

    This is a state-financed construction job! Heads should roll.

  3. This is interesting polling information. I would expect that within the next several days the President will don his blue jeans so he can rush to the streets of Manhattan and work a water pump for the cameras.

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/npr-8-point-swing-puts-romney-in-front/article/2512088#.UI_ZvcXA8TZ

    new National Public Radio poll, which had President Obama leading Mitt Romney 51 percent to 44 percent four weeks ago, now has Mitt Romney on top, 48 percent to 47 percent, with the Republican benefiting from his debate performances.

    The poll found that among likely voters, 34 percent said Romney’s debate performances made them more likely to vote for the challenger while 28 percent said they now are more likely to vote for the president. Among critical independent voters, though, Romney won big, with 37 percent saying they are now more likely to chose him compared to 21 percent for Obama.

  4. Milton Waddams

    Those construction signs are EASY to hack. I always like seeing the “Zombies ahead, turn back” ones.

  5. expdoc: Let me know when you find even one analysis that looks at ALL the state polls and comes to the conclusion that Romney is likely to win. I know of no such analysis — none, zip, zilch, zero.

    But, of course, one or more such analyses might, in fact, arise before next Tuesday. Even Nate Silver and/or Sam Wang might reach such a conclusion. After all, they go where the numbers take them. They’re not into wishful thinking, despite what their dimwitted critics say.

    It’s all about electoral votes, doc. It’s all about the polls in the various states. Nate Silver said just yesterday that Romney could still win it all. But at this point, the numbers he’s studying strongly suggest that Obama will win.

    At this writing, Silver sees a 73-percent likelihood that Obama will win. Wang puts the likelihood at between 91 and 97 percent.

    Where’s the scholarly analysis that says these guys are completely wrong and that Romney is likely to win?

  6. Obviously I don’t have one, but the scholarly analysis appears to show the popular vote is headed Romney’s way and the electoral college will be very close.

    Result: No mandate, further gridlock and budgetary crisis. Fiscal cliff, here we come.

  7. Luke Fredrickson

    Actually, the popular vote is very close and the electoral college is heading Obama’s way…

    Oh, and the fiscal cliff = squirrel.

  8. We can certainly agree to add the fiscal cliff to our Applesauce menagerie, but I don’t think squirrel is the right choice. How about gorilla? Or maybe bull in china shop?

    Here’s an article to help you out.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonynitti/2012/10/30/the-fiscal-cliff-for-dummies/

    Q: So who’s going to bear the burden of all this additional tax? Is this one of those rich-guys-benefit-while-regular-Joe’s-get-screwed deals?

    A: No, the beauty of the fiscal cliff is that everyone gets screwed. In all, 90% of households would experience a tax increase, with the TPC estimating that the average American would watch their tax bill increase by $3,500 in 2013. That increase, however, varies among income levels:

    For the lowest 20% of income earners, the removal of the 10% bracket and changes to the child tax and earned income credit will raise the average tax bill by $412.
    For the middle 60%, the increase to the payroll tax rate and expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts will raise taxes by an average of approximately $2,125.
    And for the top 20%, well, thanks to the increase to the top marginal rates, the return of the dividend rate from 15% to 39.6%, and the effects of Obamacare, they will experience an average tax increase of $14,173.
    It’s most painful, however, for the top 1%, as the likes of Mark Cuban, Bill Gates, and Jared Fogle are staring at an average tax hike of $120,537.

    Q: Fascinating. Which single change in the law stands to generate the largest tax increase?

    A: The 2% hike in payroll taxes will generate an additional $115 billion in revenue, but the resetting of the Bush-Era tax cuts take the prize, adding $223 billion to the government coffers. Which will promptly be blown on a missile defense shield that is made of magic and held in place by pixies.

    Q: OK, now on to the most important question. What is the likelihood that each of these separate categories of provisions is actually allowed to expire?

    A: The TPC gauged that as well, and concluded the following likelihood of expiration, from most to least:

    Payroll tax: it was never intended to go beyond 2012, and it won’t.
    Obamacare provisions: fresh off a blessing by the Supreme Court, it’s here to stay unless Romney wins the election.
    Bush-Era tax cuts impacting high-income taxpayers: likely to expire since President Obama could, and likely would, block any attempt to extend the cuts for the nation’s wealthy.
    Obama-Era tax cuts: this could go either way.
    Extenders: They’ve always been extended before, and likely will again.
    Estate Tax: neither party wants to see the estate tax revert to pre-2001 levels.
    Bush-Era tax cuts impacting low- and middle-income households: there has been bipartisan agreement that the rates should not increase for those earning less than $250,000.
    AMT Patch: they’d be crazy not to extend it.

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