Intrade market, where money is bet on election results, has Obama leading by a 2-1 margin

It seems that most of the people who are willing to put their money where their mouths are expect President Obama to defeat Mitt Romney in next week’s election.

At this writing, the betting on the Intrade market SHOWS Obama leading his Republican rival 63.5 percent to 36.5 percent.

Similar percentages prevail on the question of which candidate will carry Ohio and Iowa, respectively. Romney is widely favored to win Florida and slightly favored to win Colorado. Obama’s a 3-1 favorite in Wisconsin.

As for the Electoral College, Obama leads 281 votes to 235 with 22 other votes up for grabs.

It should be noted that the Intrade numbers are updated regularly. So, check back from time to time if you want to discern trends one way or the other.



  1. Milton Waddams

    Off topic, but you might be interested in this Pat… sounds like the Mittster rents LDS’s charitable status.


  2. Well… why don’t you tell the whole story? A month ago, it was almost 80-20 in Obama’s favor, and he dropped to 55 as recently as a few days ago. The run-up to 80, by the way, was around the time the liberal media declared Obama the winner before the debates had even begun.

    No matter. The flaw in your reasoning is this: Intrade bettors base their decisions on public information, which is tainted by the mainstream media. But the Intrade numbers will converge over the next week, probably Obama in the 50s and Romney in the 40s. Remember, Intrade is like day trading. Many bettors make money from changes in the value of the shares, and they’ll get out when they think no more money can be made.

    Milton: I’m sure the Mittster does many legal things with his taxes. He would not describe it as “renting.” That absurd BusinessWeek article did, and you simply copied it and wove it into a vapid new context with sinister overtones as if Romney were a criminal. And “renting” is a highly inaccurate word. If I rented the LDS church’s charitable status, you can bet I’d use it to collect a lot of donations payable directly to me. What odd thinkers you liberals are.

    One week to go, and I am already singing my favorite three words: “former President Obama.”

  3. Charles Lewis

    Oh yes, it’s the “lamestream media” as the lumpenproletariat’s lumpen-in-chief, Sarah Palin, loves to say.

  4. I bet the red cross would be happy to get 5 million donations about now ? I know it’s not related to this article , but lets not forget about it ! 5 million would do alot of good for lots of people !

  5. Intrade’s predictions are meaningless till the day of or the day before the election similar to trying to determine the exact position of landfall for a tropical hurricane . Secondly, calling it as those “who are willing to put their money where their mouths are” is incomplete. There are lot more “willing” to bet – just try opening an account if you are US based. You’ll need copies of credit card statements, bank statements sent to Ireland and a “wire transfer” as US credit cards are not accepted or a check which will take 10 days to clear. Not quite representative.

  6. Just a slight correction, the intrade odds are odds of winning the election, so if Obama has 280 electoral votes and it’s razor thin that’s what the odds are about, just winning. He’s not going to get 63.5% of the vote. I’d be surprised if any candidate were to ever get that percentage barring scandal

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